China’s Space Rockets Fuel Danger In Philippines And Worldwide

Space rockets are fueling new conflict between China and The Philippines. On December 17, for the third time in the past two months, the Philippine Coast Guard found debris from Chinese space rockets within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), in an area claimed by China. One of the incidents, on November 20, was followed by a confrontation between the Chinese Coast Guard and Philippine Navy, in which China violated international law. China’s rocket debris has rained down on villages in Africa, closed Spanish airspace, and created dangerous conditions all over the world. The U.S. must back the Philippines in promoting international law in the South China Sea, and in promoting international space law to protect safety on earth.

On November 20, the Chinese Coast Guard came into direct conflict with a civilian vessel, manned by Philippine navy personnel, that was towing rocket debris about 800 yards off of The Philippines’ Pag-Asa island. The incident occurred in an area of The Philippines’ EEZ that is claimed by China. After spotting the debris, Philippine sailors took a rubber boat to retrieve it. Chinese Coast Guard vessel 5203 approached and twice blocked its pre-planned course. Vessel 5203 then deployed an inflatable boat with personnel who severed the tow line and forcibly seized the debris, in violation of international maritime law. A Philippine officer asked his Chinese counterparts to stop, but received no response. The Philippine sailors decided to return to Pag-Asa. No one was injured in the incident. China denies that any forcible seizure occurred and claims that the Philippine navy handed over the rocket debris after a “friendly consultation” for which China expressed “appreciation,” according to Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning.The Philippine Senate expressed “disgust” and condemned China’s “bullying.”

On December 12, in response to the incident, the Philippines filed a diplomatic protest with the Chinese embassy—one of 189 this year. The incident occurs against the backdrop of other Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, including vessel swarming in hydrocarbon-rich areas and potentially the building of new, illegal artificial islands. China’s actions are calculated to slowly erode The Philippines’ sovereignty and harm its strategic position, as China shows that it can claim and act in the Philippines’ EEZ with impunity, without military contestation, and even use it as a waste dump for its space junk.

The U.S. has stated that it shares the Philippines’ concerns regarding the rocket debris incident. However, the U.S. must do more to promote the rule of law in the South China Sea and beyond. The U.S. must stand behind its ally as the Philippines ramps up its military presence in its EEZ in response to recent incidents. Looking beyond the sea, the U.S. must promote international efforts designed to make nations responsible for space trash—and to make China’s rocket launches safer. As China ramps up its space program, the Philippines is sure to see more rocket debris in EEZ—and more conflicts over it in disputed areas. Debris from Chinese rocket launches has crashed into Philippine waters in prior years. The Philippine Coast Guard discovered a floating object on November 16, southwest of Bajo de Masinloc, but did not recover it due to its size and the depth to which it had sunk. On December 17, the Philippine Coast Guard recovered more rocket debris 55 nautical miles west of Subic. Both objects are believed to be part of a Long March 5B rocket launched from China’s Wenchang Space Launch Center on October 31.

Chinese rocket debris poses a threat far beyond the Philippines. Rocket parts that detach before reaching space will fall back offshore soon after a launch. However, most orbital-class rockets are designed so that their first stages are safely pushed into the ocean after separating from their upper stages, or designed to safely land on the ground, away from people, to be reused. China’s Long March 5B rockets, however, are not designed that way. Instead, they make a deliberate uncontrolled atmospheric re-entry, and their parts are pulled down by drag wherever they fall.

China has thus far successfully gambled that the rocket parts would not injure humans. After the October 31 launch, the largest rocket booster, the size of a 10-story building, crashed safely into the Pacific. However, the re-entry caused significant disruption, including a closure of Spanish airspace that disrupted hundreds of flights. Several years ago, chunks of debris landed on villages in West Africa, causing property damage. Even when it does not fall on land, such rocket debris can pose considerable danger to ships, aircraft, fishing boats, and other vessels. NASA last year accused Beijing of “failing to meet responsible standards regarding space debris.” However, the lack of clear international law in this area enables China to claim that it is conducting its rocket launches in accordance with international law. The Philippine space agency is already pushing for the Philippines to ratify U.N. Registration and liability conventions that will provide a basis for compensation from harm from damage or injury “caused by a space object of another state.” The U.S. should promote these efforts, as well as working with other nations to develop standards for space debris mitigation, in accordance with its own 2022 National Orbital Debris Implementation Plan. Other frameworks, such as an international framework for orbital traffic management recently proposed by the Atlantic Council, should be considered.

China’s disregard for other nations’ sovereignty extends far beyond the sea. The U.S. must lead the way in promoting the Philippines’ sovereignty—and international safety involving space debris. The U.S. must stand with its treaty ally, the Philippines, to promote the rule of law in the South China Sea. And in space, where adequate rules may not exist, the U.S. must lead the way in creating new standards, norms, and law.