China trade data clouds EUR/USD outlook – ING

EUR/USD may have carved out a key low, but weak Chinese trade data and uncertainty over the US labor backdrop limit confidence in a sustained rebound, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EUR/USD holds 1.1500 support after testing 1.1470 low

“While we like the idea of a weaker dollar and a stronger EUR/USD, last night’s Chinese trade data is unwelcome news. It suggests China might not have as easily diversified its exports away from the US as first thought – or at least the ex-US demand is insufficient to offset the loss of the US market. That will only add to fears of increasing Chinese pressure in European markets.”

“There is a chance that EUR/USD may have established an important low at 1.1470 this week. But for a rally to unfold, we will probably need to get more clarity on the slowing US jobs market. Let’s see whether intra-day support at 1.1500/1510 can now hold.”