China Could Push ‘Minions 2’ Past ‘Doctor Strange 2’ And ‘Jurassic World 3

Deadline is reporting that Universal and Illumination’s Minions: The Rise of Gru will be opening in China on August 19. This comes on the heels of China’s Moon Man nearing $300 million in ten days to become their first local breakout smash of 2022. This breakout success is key in a year where (partially thanks to dwindling Hollywood-specific grosses) the Chinese box office was down by around 38% from last year over the first half of this year. However, with Spider-Man: No Way Home ($1.91 billion) and Top Gun: Maverick ($1.35 billion) earning sky-high grosses without China, and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($955 million) and The Batman ($770 million) making ‘good enough, thanks’ with little-to-no revenue there, the shoe is now on the other foot. China needs Gru more than Gru needs China.

Every little bit helps when chasing arbitrary box office milestones. Jurassic World Dominion just topped Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness to become the second-biggest global grosser of 2022. The $185 million dino threequel was already a big hit without $160 million in China, compared to $227 million for Jurassic World and $267 million for Fallen Kingdom, but #2 is #2. Moreover, the lack of Chinese bucks has, absurdly in my estimation, contributed to a media narrative arguing that the MCU is in a slump because Doctor Strange 2 didn’t crack $1 billion and Thor: Love and Thunder won’t pass $750 million. Minions: The Rise of Gru is already a smash with $757 million on an $80 million budget. It will probably top out at around $815 million without China. But… well, every bit helps.

Despicable Me 2 earned $53 million in China in the summer of 2013, making up just 5.5% of a $971 million total. Minions earned $68.5 million in July 2015, accounting for 6% of a $1.159 billion gross. Secret Life of Pets earned $58 million in China in 2016, contributing 6.6% of its $875 million global gross. Despicable Me 3 was the only $1 billion-plus grosser of 2017, partially thanks to $153 million in China. That offset a domestic decline ($264 million versus $336 million for Minions and $368 million for Despicable Me 2 and Pets 1). It made up 15% of a $1.035 billion global gross. Illumination doesn’t need China for fortune and glory. It doesn’t hurt, especially if Minions/Despicable was about to join Jurassic, Avatar, Fast Saga and the MonsterVerse as a ‘safe in China’ franchise.

Stating the obvious, Universal would prefer that their franchises remain big in China since they have IP-specific theme park investments. If the Comcast-owned studio continues to, even just by Covid-era standards, become the big Hollywood studio in China in the future, that will give them and their franchises a modest commercial advantage. In a skewed way, their most crucial upcoming release could be the animated Super Mario Bros. movie, since Super Nintendo Land isn’t yet coming to China’s Universal Studios parks, possibly because the IP just isn’t super-duper popular in China. If that changes, well, let’s hope Super Mario Bros. 2023) plays better than Super Mario Bros. (1993). Anyway, how might Minions: The Rise of Gru perform in China?

Well, remembering that The Croods: A New Age earned $55 million in late 2020/early 2021 during challenging circumstances, I’d have to presume that the over/under $55 million is a minimum guestimate. That would push Minions 2’s global box office to around $870 million at the end, or about on par with Secret Life of Pets. Or, if it soars to infinity and beyond and it pulls a Despicable Me 3-worthy $155 million, well, that’s a new cume of around $970 million, past Doctor Strange 2 and just over/under Jurassic World 3’s likely over/under $975 million finishing point. This is all estimated guessing, and I don’t think Minions 2 is going to take a Godzilla Vs. Kong-level upswing ($188 million versus $135 million for King of the Monsters), but if so, it’s $213 million for a $1.025 billion-plus finish.

That would be just above F9 ($205 million) as China’s biggest post-Covid Hollywood grosser. If that sounds absurd, a drop on par with Jurassic World Dominion (-40% from Fallen Kingdom) would still get it to $91 million and thus $906 million worldwide. Again, all of the big movies this summer, including Thor: Love and Thunder, which just passed $700 million worldwide and $315 million domestic, are big hits that don’t need China to be prosperous. However, if you’re looking at your summer box office betting pool, China still matters just a little bit. Moreover, if studios are thinking of the ‘biggest xyz’ that looks great on a press release, China is still a useful propaganda tool. China won’t turn Minions 2 into a hit. But it would help the film place second at the global summer box office.