China And Trump’s Abraham Accords Remake Middle Eastern Energy

U.S. President Donald Trump’s teasing about the possibility of more countries joining the Abraham Accords is one of the most important, and least appreciated, developments from the U.S.-Israeli-Iranian war. While Cassandras prophesied destabilization of the Middle East, the expansion of the accords could lead to a less radical and more stable political environment and increased energy availability worldwide. There may be a welcome change in the global balance of power, as China and Russia recognize that the United States is not kidding.

This is a fitting result, since Iran supported the October 7^th, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel to derail the Abraham Accords, more specifically, to prevent Saudi Arabia from coming on board. The Abraham Accords, the first Trump administration’s most significant foreign policy accomplishments, sought to normalize relations between Israel and various Muslim-majority states. In doing so, it was hoped that outside influence and economic ties could slowly unravel the Gordian Knot that is Israeli-Palestinian relations and cool tensions. Iran’s disruption of this process was both ideological and strategic, in escalation of its hegemonic ambitions and its “ring of fire” strategy, designed to surround and attack Israel through numerous proxies, an approach which would be threatened by Trump’s initiative.

Whether one believes a broken clock tells time twice a day, or the result was due to great strategic insight, Trump seems to have succeeded in his “splendid little war”. Iran’s nuclear and military capacity has been reduced, its network of proxies largely smashed, the friendly Assad regime in Syria gone, a quagmire resulting from regime change in Tehran avoided. The global economy dodged recession because the Strait of Hormuz was not closed, possibly with the assistance of China. America’s position, both geopolitically and in the energy sector, has been strengthened following the strikes on Iran, to wit Brent oil prices hovering at a healthy $67 a barrel at the time of this writing. While doubts about the success of attacks against Iran’s nuclear capabilities persist, and confusion about the feasibility of Iran’s nuclear ambitions endures, there is less doubt about the results for Iran’s patrons and neighbors.

The Abraham Accords Expanded

The expansion of the Abraham Accords is the most likely immediate result of Iran’s humiliation, and it heralds the erosion of Iranian power. One obvious candidate for expansion, in both my estimation and per the Israeli media, is Azerbaijan, a majority Shi’a Muslim secular state that already has an exemplary relationship with Israel, making it the perfect antithesis to Iran. Should Azerbaijan join the Accords, the European energy market would be the most significant immediate beneficiary, since Azeri energy could flow westwards without its existing cooperation with Israel acting as a burden.

Today, Iran, being unable to confront Israel and the U.S., is picking a fight with Azerbaijan, spreading deepfakes and threats to “retaliate” for Baku’s alleged assistance to Jerusalem during the war. Azerbaijan’s ascension to the Abraham Accords will prevent Iran from aggressive moves towards its independent neighbor, thus actively denying Tehran’s strife to control the energy-rich Caucasus region.

There are other promising candidates for the Abraham Accords. Syria, assuming it opts to join, would serve as a dramatic example of a nation’s ability to exit the Axis of Evil camp and embark on a path toward development. It would be a powerful way for Syria’s President Ahmed al-Shaara to demonstrate that his claims of being a changed man in charge of a changing country are not simply rhetoric. Doing so would also allow the economic development of Syria’s underutilized energy resources. It must be noted that Azerbaijan played an active role in facilitating talks between Turkey and Israel over the regime change in Syria.

Central Asian states, including Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which, like Azerbaijan, are largely secular majority Muslim countries with good relations with Israel, could also make excellent additions. They are, by and large, energy-exporting states dependent on commodity revenues. Hooking them into an emerging geoeconomic framework under the auspices of the Abraham Accords could economically help reinforce these states against encroaching Russian and Chinese influence, while simultaneously boosting development and ties to the West.

China’s Pivot And The Abraham Accords

In Tehran’s hour of need, Iran’s axis of allies folded under American pressure. Russia, bogged down in Ukraine, refused to act. Beijing could have credibly supported Iran in defense of its strategic partnership. Instead, China opted for low energy prices amid fears that further escalation would damage its economy. Now, in the aftermath of Trump’s victory and China’s difficult decision, the Middle East is in flux, and Beijing has both hard choices and opportunities ahead of it.

China’s abandonment of Iran at the first inconvenience isn’t a total loss. While this action may convince some that China is a paper tiger, for others, especially Iran’s Arab rivals, it is seen as a sign of prudence. China is far more reliant on Arab states for energy than it is on Iran. Furthermore, Beijing’s only hope of expanding engagement with the Middle East now lies with the Arab states; and the Arab states, which are increasingly likely to join the Abraham Accords, are the key for China to normalize contacts with the region and sidestep Iranian ambitions.

Amongst aspirants to the accords, China already has close relations with Central Asian states and expressed an interest in investing in Syria. In Azerbaijan, China maintains a pragmatic, growing strategic partnership rooted in energy, infrastructure, and regional connectivity. Thus, China may even find strategic utility in supporting the Accords, not just for its Middle Eastern objectives, but also to mitigate against the controversies concerning Beijing’s repression of the Muslim Uyghurs in China’s Xinjiang region.

The Abraham Accords now transcend mere peacekeeping in the Middle East. They may become a coalition of nations with which the United States can reliably deal. Within this framework, Israel is a capstone asset. Still, also a litmus test: a Muslim country’s ability to maintain harmonious relations with Israel is seen as indicative of its potential for constructive engagement with America. This strategic vision positions the Abraham Accords as a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy, leveraging Israel’s role to foster a network of allied states, thereby enhancing American influence and energy security on the global stage. Ironically, this strategic vision is more recognized in Beijing and Tehran than in Washington, D.C.