Chicago White Sox Face Tough Decision As Lucas Giolito Approaches Crossroads

Sometimes crossroads come at you sooner than you expect. That is the case with the Chicago White Sox and Lucas Giolito, their Opening Day starter of the last three seasons.

Giolito is unsigned, one year away from free agency and just delivered an alarming season (11-9 with a 4.90 ERA) in which his velocity dipped and his hard-hit rate increased. He’ll only be in his age-28 season in 2023 but it’s no longer clear that his future is on Chicago’s South Side.

The White Sox face three choices with Giolito — extend his contract, trade him or let the arbitration process play out and see where things stand when you get to the trade deadline next season.

Factoring into the situation is that the White Sox payroll has grown to the point where it appears Jerry Reinsdorf and GM Rick Hahn might actually allow their heart-and-soul player, Jose Abreu, to leave as a free agent. The Sox opened last season with a record payroll of $193.4 million and face the reality that it could grow beyond $210 million if they don’t make some hard decisions.

Because Giolito had a down season, he is not a major issue by himself. He earned $7.45 million last season and projects to a salary of $10.8 million next season, per MLB Trade Rumors. He could still be a fit in a rotation that includes Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn, Michael Kopech and possibly Davis Martin.

But what should the Sox make of Giolito’s down year?

His average fastball velocity decreased from 94.0 to 92.7, per Fangraphs. Both his wipeout slider and changeup were sub-par pitches last season, producing slugging percentages of .488 and .418, respectively. His walk rate was up, his strikeout rate was down. He was uncharacteristically ineffective against right-handed hitters (.912 OPS) and, despite a strong September, was only slightly better in the second half than the first half.

Giolito’s trade value is not nearly as high as it was a year ago but he would have some appeal. One thought for the White Sox is to re-sign Johnny Cueto entering his age-37 season and trade Giolito.

There’s some parallel here to the off-season of 2011-12, when Mark Buehrle hit free agency with lefty John Danks entering his walk year. The White Sox chose Danks over Buehrle even though Danks was coming off a down season.

Danks was signed to a five-year, $65-million contract while Buehrle signed a four-year deal with the Marlins. Shoulder injuries contributed to Danks going 25-48 with a 4.92 ERA over the course of that contract.

This might seem a harsh comparison for Giolito but there was a time when Danks was held in similar regard. His 1-0 victory over Minnesota in the 2008 tie-breaker stands as one of the most well pitched games in franchise history.

Cueto almost saved the White Sox last season, turning in a 3.35 ERA over 158 1/3 innings after signing for only $4.25 million in early April. He is looking to sign a multi-year contract more in tune with his previous one, which paid him $21.7 million over six years.

Would Cueto take a two-year, $25-million deal to stay with the White Sox? Or a three-year, $30 million deal? Would that represent a better investment than betting Giolito can return to his form of 2019-21?

This is one of the most important questions Hahn’s front office must answer.