Chicago White Sox Are Plunging Toward Their Worst-Case Scenario

One of my biggest problems with major league baseball in 2023 is the sheer volume of teams that aren’t even trying to win. Team payroll disparities are massive from top to bottom, and you can write off at least a third of the teams from postseason contention not long after the season’s first pitch is thrown.

The Chicago White Sox, for all of the bad things that can currently be said about them, are not one of those teams. (Two other members of their division, the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers, are.) They spend a reasonable amount of money on payroll on an annual basis, rightly seeing themselves as potential contenders. It leads one to wonder what on earth has happened to drop them into their current predicament, tied for last place in the AL Central through Saturday’s games with a 7-21 record, riding a 10-game losing streak that was snapped by a miracle 9th inning rally on Sunday.

Coming into 2023, the Chisox were rightly seen as a division and playoff contender. I’d say the consensus placed them third behind the Cleveland Guardians and my choice, the Minnesota Twins. Most saw Chicago’s strengths as a potentially dominant starting rotation fronted by Dylan Cease, Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn and an ascendant group of young position players led by Luis Robert, Andrew Vaughn and Eloy Jimenez. Sure, there were questions, like the bullpen, a couple of questionable spots in the batting order and general overall depth, but about 25 of the 30 clubs have at least one major flaw. The best-case scenario would be an easy division win and perhaps a run at 100 wins, while the worst would be………well, what they’re currently experiencing is way worse than anything that anyone could have imagined.

What has happened and why, and is this reversible? Are the White Sox already out of the division and playoff race, and what individuals on and off the field might be held accountable for this disaster?

THE ISSUES

• Utter Lack Of Plate Discipline – Even last season, when the Sox finished an even .500 at 81-81, they drew fewer walks (388) than any American League club. Now this wasn’t a total deal-breaker, as the team had the 2nd most hits and 3rd highest team batting average in the AL. They finished 9th in runs scored, so plate discipline was a concern coming into this season, and became even more of one with the departure of Jose Abreu, who led the club in walks with 62 in 2022. Yasmani Grandal was next with 45 – no other player had more than 32.
• They Missed The Launch Angle Memo – As a team, the White Sox had the lowest overall average launch angle (10.4 degrees) in the American League last season. Honestly, with regard to both shortcomings listed so far, the team had taken on the good and bad characteristics of their best player, shortstop Tim Anderson, who never pops up or walks, but compensated with bunches of line drives that propped up the team batting average. Which leads us to perhaps their biggest problem and its domino effects……
• Iffy Team Health – Anderson hasn’t played more than 123 games in a season since 2018, and missed big chunks of 2022 with finger and groin injuries. Jimenez hasn’t played more than 84 games in a season since 2019, Robert has NEVER played more than 98 games in a season, and 3B Yoan Moncada has been dogged by nagging injuries in both 2022 and 2023. Abreu’s been brutal as a Houston Astro, but he always answered the bell in Chicago.
• Utter Lack Of Quality Depth – The ire of some Sox fans was directed at utilityman Leury Garcia over the years, and to be honest, he was kind of the poster boy for this issue. His bat was almost nonexistent, and he wasn’t a defensive standout anywhere, though he could be plugged in at almost any position for short stints. He somehow lasted a decade with the White Sox before being jettisoned prior to this season. And guess what – he’s actually been missed.
• The Bullpen – The White Sox were one of only four teams with a bullpen ERA of 4.00 or higher last season, and that was despite the quality work turned in by closer Liam Hendriks. With Hendriks sidelined as he is being treated for Non-Hodgkins Lymphoma, and fireballer Garrett Crochet in the latter stages of his Tommy John surgery rehab, the club knew the early stages of 2023 could be a slog.

So those were the concerns about this team coming in. The club honestly didn’t do enough offseason work to shore up these weaknesses. Yes, the typically durable high-floor low-ceiling Andrew Benintendi was brought in to stabilize the top of the order and add some patience to the lineup. Otherwise? Not so much.

It’s still a wild-swinging group on balance, with their 71 walks ranking dead last in the AL. Despite Anderson’s absence, they don’t elevate the baseball all that much. They’ve been depleted by injuries, and with Anderson and Moncada on the bench, depth players like Elvis Andrus and Lenyn Sosa have been overexposed and asked to do too much, and rookie Oscar Colas’ struggles have been magnified. The bullpen, which got no real offseason attention, has been a minefield.

Their new manager, Pedro Grifol, and his coaching staff has been thrown into the fire right away, and the early returns aren’t promising. The club has made fundamental mistakes, and Robert in particular has shown a lack of hustle at times. The fact that he was unaware of the name of bench coach Charlie Montoyo in a discussion with media isn’t a good sign.

The new rule changes implemented by MLB this season haven’t been kind to the Sox, either. Burly starter Lance Lynn has been utterly dominant the vast majority of the time – but has a 7.16 ERA thanks to a handful of huge innings allowed when he had to throw a ton of pitches. Saturday’s ugly 12-3 loss to the Rays was a case in point – he had a no-hitter entering the 7th, but just a few batters into the 7th the game got away from him, and the bullpen subsequently set it on fire when he was removed.

The White Sox are not this bad. No one is – except possibly the A’s. But momentum is a real thing, and the season may have already gotten away from this club. Anderson and Moncada will be back before long, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Sox’ younger players haven’t developed as hoped. Even if they go .500 the rest of the way, this would be a very disappointing 74-win team. Changes on the field will be tried first, but despite the long tenures of team President Kenny Williams and GM Rick Hahn and the short tenure of Grifol, significant off-field change could soon follow.