Chicago Cubs Take A Big Risk Trying To Fill Long-Term Pitching Needs

Nothing contributed more to the short-lived nature of the Cubs’ championship team than the inability to draft and develop pitching. It was a failing that bedeviled Theo Epstein and continues to haunt his replacement, Jed Hoyer, whose team has gone 55-93 since it traded away Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez, with no relief in sight.

Third-year manager David Ross receiving a contract extension that runs through 2024 as much in appreciation for how he’s endured a patchwork pitching staff than anything else he’s done since taking on the difficult job of replacing Joe Maddon.

Kyle Hendricks remains as a reminder of the good old days but has a 4.78 ERA the last two seasons, with one more guaranteed year left on his contract. Veterans Marcus Stroman, Wade Miley and Drew Smyly were added for this season but so far have thrown only a combined 123 2/3 innings, with mixed results.

The onus for the future is on developing arms to pitch alongside 26-year-old lefty Justin Steele and 27-year-old right-hander Keegan Thompson, whose solid first halves represent some of the best work by the Cubs’ scouts and player development staff. The Cubs acknowledged their need for pitching by forgoing the safety of college hitters to select high-risk, high-reward pitchers with their first two picks of this year’s draft.

In first-round pick Cade Horton they added a right-hander who was a standout for Oklahoma University in last month’s College World Series. Second-round pick Jackson Ferris is a high-school lefty who many scouts feel has a higher ceiling than Horton, and who likely slid out of the first round because of questions about his price tag to sign.

In the early years of Epstein’s rebuild, he focused on prospects who were viewed as known quantities, taking Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ in consecutive years. All three were selected with top-10 picks.

Because Epstein’s teams won, the 2022 draft marked the first time since ’15 than the Cubs had a pick higher than 16. Hoyer and his scouting director, Dan Kantrovitz, bypassed a group of respected college hitters — among those available were Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee, Georgia Tech catcher Kevin Parada, Texas Tech infielder Jace Jung and Tennessee outfielder Drew Gilbert — to select Horton with the seventh pick.

Horton was lightly pitched at Oklahoma, missing the 2021 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He was wildly inconsistent for most of this season, taking a 7.94 ERA into the NCAA playoffs. But everything came together for him in his final five starts, when he combined a high-90s fastball with a wipeout slider to strike out 49 in 31 innings.

That’s a small sample of success for scouts to put their stamp on but it suggests the Cubs believe Horton can be the dominating starter they’ve lacked since Jake Arrieta departed. If Horton doesn’t pay off, the draft could be rescued by Ferris.

The 6-4 lefty looks the part of a future front-of-the-rotation pitcher but faces years of development before being deemed ready to face the most advanced hitters. He already has two solid secondary pitches to go with a mid-90s fastball but you have to ask why 29 other teams left the IMG Academy product on the board until the 47th pick, when the Cubs grabbed him.

Ferris is committed to pitch for Ole Miss, which beat Oklahoma in the College World Series finals, and could be a challenge to sign. The spot where he is picked carries only a slot value of $1,660,400, compared to $5,708,000 where Horton was picked.

The Cubs clearly believe they can balance the signing bonuses of Horton and Ferris, adding both of them to head a draft class that will provide a major upgrade to their pitching depth. The need is obvious, although they may come to regret not following Epstein’s leaning toward the security of college hitters.

The Cubs are taking a big risk with both