Chicago Cubs Are Set For A Bold Off-Season If Ricketts Is Ready To Spend Again

Mired in mediocrity, the Texas Rangers rolled into the 2021 season with a payroll of $94.7 million. They were positioned to add salary and they did after the ’21 season, increasing the payroll by a tick over 50 percent, all the way to $142.2.

They didn’t sign a whole clubhouse full of newcomers but the two they did sign commanded a lot of attention. Shortstops Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, both clients of Scott Boras, signed deals worth a combined $500 million over 17 seasons, paying them $58 million in salary this season. No wonder Semien was just fine moved from short to second base.

It’s worth considering this ultra-aggressive attempt to shorten the rebuilding cycle when considering the options expected to be available to the Chicago Cubs and their owner, Tom Ricketts, this winter.

There is a path for the Cubs to emulate the Rangers, although Texas’ 63-84 record should give anyone pause about whether that’s the way to go.

Ricketts, who almost completely avoided the media after trading off Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez a year ago, was full of good tidings when he met the media recently. He said he considered this season a success despite his team’s lack of competitiveness, adding that he’s confident his front office can build a winner because some members worked under Theo Epstein when the team won the 2016 World Series.

The Cubs paid heavily to build and maintain that team, of course, with a competitive balance tax payroll of $237.2 million (second largest in baseball) as recently as 2019. They opened 2022 with a payroll of $174.8 million but have only about $90 million guaranteed on the books for next season, including $22 million to Jason Heyward, who the team has said it will release.

It would seem the team’s president of baseball operations, Jed Hoyer, will have a lot of money to spend this off-season. But after Ricketts allowed the deconstruction of a team that had played .569 baseball over six and a half seasons, it is unclear how committed ownership is to financing its team.

But what if the Cubs did like Texas last winter, signing two of the top free agents on the market?

That could mean they open 2023 with Trea Turner at shortstop and Xander Bogaerts at second base. Possibly Turner at short and Carlos Correa at second base, or Correa at short and Bogaerts at second.

All of these scenarios qualify as farfetched but, then again, who thought the Rangers would sign Seager and Semien?

One big difference is Texas did not have a homegrown infielder as effective as Nico Hoerner. The former first-round pick from Stanford is wrapping up a breakout year in his age-25 season, hitting .291 with a .759 OPS while delivering +11 Defensive Runs Saved at shortstop, the fourth-best total at the position. His 4.1 fWAR this season essentially matches Correa’s mark.

Turner and Correa are likely out of the picture if Hoyer remains committed to Hoerner as his shortstop. But maybe not Bogaerts, whose defensive metrics have shown him as a liability throughout his career (although he’s a career-best +2 DRS this year).

Ricketts and Hoyer could use some of their capital to retain catcher Willson Contreras, who they surprisingly held onto at the trade deadline. But the expectation is they will give him a qualifying offer and lose him to free agency for only draft choice compensation.

Brandon Nimmo, the Mets’ center fielder, may be the best fit for the Cubs in the upcoming free agent class. They have searched for a center fielder since Albert Almora failed to fill the hole left by Dexter Fowler, and Nimmo would be a plug-and-play option for years to come. He’s currently getting on base 36 percent of the time as a leadoff man while playing adequate defense (0 DRS over the last two seasons).

Hoyer will almost certainly look to add pitching although the team’s hope is that Kyle Hendricks will recover from shoulder issues to join Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson in the rotation.

Dozens of prospective free agents make sense as targets for the Cubs. But it remains to be seen if ownership is committed to fixing a mess of its own making.