Chicago Bulls Center Nikola Vučević Has Changed Up His Game

Last season, Chicago Bulls center Nikola Vučević struggled. His shot went AWOL for weeks, and the 6’10 big man often looked like he was searching for a place in the offense, which had suddenly gotten a talent injection in form of DeMar DeRozan.

As such, Vučević was often brought up in trade rumors by Bulls fans, who wanted more stability at the center position. Indiana’s Myles Turner was a frequent name that popped up in those conversations.

Now, back for the 2022-2023 campaign, Vučević looks more certain in his role and more deliberate in his decisions. There are a few reasons why.

Shot-selection

Not since the 2014-2015 season has over 30% of Vučević’s shot attempts come from within three feet of the basket as they are this year. He’s sacrificed in other areas, scaling back drastically on his mid-range jumpers, using only 4.5% of his offense on shots from between 16 feet and the three-point line. His career average? 18.4%.

Last year, Vučević hit just 31.4% of his three-pointers, which made up for 28.7% of his offense. One would think that was enough motivation to scale back on the long jumpers, but instead Vučević has scaled up. 33.8% of his shots are now three’s, and he’s hitting that shot at a 40% accuracy rate.

That isn’t entirely coincidental, however, as one might suspect. Vučević is more selective with the shot, despite the increased volume. Instead of seeking out the shot, he’s letting it come to him within the flow of the offense, often stepping outside to create enough room for DeRozan to operate in the mid-range area. As a result, when the defense collapses, Vučević is right there, spotting up.

Needless to say, having had a full year of playing with DeRozan has given him more insights as to where defenses will send double-teams from, and where to position himself off-ball as to be more effective.

Last season, 22.9% of Vučević’s three-point attempts were labeled as “wide open”, meaning the closest defender was six or more feet away from him. That number has risen to 27.8% this year, a clear sign of him identifying his spots better.

(It’s also worth mentioning that second-year guard Ayo Dosunmu has nearly doubled his drives per game, which forces defenses to back-peddle and collapse, further allowing Vučević more space on the perimeter.)

Finally, Vučević isn’t even done yet. Despite his increased shot attempts near the rim, he’s only converting on 57.5% of those shots, compared to 70.8% last season. He’s never finished below 60% in his entire career, making it fair to assume he’ll get that efficiency back up as the season progresses.

If he succeeds, Vučević would suddenly have one of the most efficient shot profiles of any high-volume offensive centers in the NBA.

Playmaking & rebounding

2.8 assists may not look like much, especially as that number is down from last year’s 3.2 rate. But Vučević remains a highly clever playmaker for playing the center position. He makes quick reads, and will often make passes from the nail, where he can scan the court quickly, and make a call.

He’ll also find both DeRozan and Zach LaVine when they have a good game brewing, and get out their way, removing himself from the play and instead function as a spacer.

He was building some interesting chemistry with Patrick Williams after being acquired from the Magic in 2021, but due to Williams’ limited availability last season where he missed 65 games, that connection has yet to be re-established. It’s worth pointing out, as Williams recently has looked for shot quite a bit more, which should allow Vučević to have another tool at his disposal moving forward.

As for the glass, Vučević is quite simply everywhere right now, grabbing 12.3 rebounds per game in just 31.5 minutes.

Of course, it needs to be mentioned that rebounding machine Andre Drummond has missed the last four games, allowing Vučević more chances at cleaning the glass. Nevertheless, he’s stepped up in Drummond’s absence and done just that.

Vučević’s offensive rebounding is another element in his shot rate near the basket, where his size, strength, and touch allows him to put the ball right back on the rim after coming down with the board.

Ultimately, Vučević seems to not be messing around this year. He may still need to sharpen some areas, but it’s been an encouraging start. And perhaps a necessary one as he’s looking for a contract extension.

A fair price

Vučević is an unrestricted free agent after this season, unless he and the Bulls agree to a contract extension.

It would make sense for both sides to get a deal done, as the Bulls won’t have money to spend if they let him walk anyway. And for Vučević, who’s 32, having long-term security at that age would seem prudent.

He’s currently earning $22 million this season, and a new contract in a similar ballpark would seem doable for both sides. Perhaps the Bulls could get him down to a clean $20 million annually, but with the cap increasing steadily year-by-year, there’s no point in squeezing him and potentially making the relationship contentious.

One scenario that could be interesting is to offer Vučević two contracts. A short-term solution worth $50 million over two years, or a long-term solution worth $60 million over three years.

Vučević would be 34 after the inclusion of the two-year offer, which is an age where you won’t exactly know where your market value will be. Old centers aren’t usually big earners, especially as they lose their speed and athletic prowess.

Would he be able to make up the difference in salary after that season, or is the long-term plan of an even $20 million for three years more appealing?

It’s crucial to note here that the above offers take into account an climbing salary cap. If that wasn’t a factor, it’d make more sense for Chicago to seek a deal similar to that of Jonas Valanciunas, who last season signed a two-year extension worth $30 million with the New Orleans Pelicans.

If the Bulls end up being able to sign Vučević to a deal of that nature, especially as the cap would have increased by roughly $21 million since Valanciunas’ deal, then they can walk away extremely satisfied, as it’s difficult to see how such a contract could even age poorly in today’s market.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.