Chelsea’s January Spending Spree Is A $200 Million Gamble On Players’ Potential

January might be the time for bargains, but not in west London.

Chelsea Football Club have spent more money this January transfer window than all the clubs in La Liga, Serie A, The Bundesliga and Ligue 1 combined. Chelsea have spent roughly $180 million according to Transfermarkt, and even more spending is likely.

What’s surprising is not the amount Chelsea have spent, but who they have spent it on.

Since Todd Boehly bought Chelsea off the sanctioned oligarch Roman Abramovich in May last year, he has spent almost half a billion dollars on new players.

The clubs’s form has slumped this season, to the point where reaching the Champions League looks almost impossible. But despite this, most of January’s arrivals are not what would called “panic signings”.

The only signing that would have been likely signed to make an instant impact is Joao Felix, who joined on loan from Atletico Madrid for a reported loan fee of around $11 million. That fee seems extraordinary, but if it is calculated over five seasons, it’s still less than what Atletico bought him for.

Felix made an instant impact on his debut and was the best Chelsea player on the pitch before getting himself sent off with a wild tackle that will cost Chelsea more than $1.5 million just from his three match ban alone.

Chelsea’s other signings clearly haven’t been bought for what they’ve done in their careers so far. The club’s most expensive buy, Ukrainian winger Mykhalyo Mudryk, whose fee could top $100 million if he reaches his potential, has played just 65 professional games at club level, mainly in a Ukrainian league weakened by its foreign stars leaving.

21-year-old French defender Benoit Badiashile does have three seasons of experience with Monaco. But Noni Madueke only has just over 2,000 minutes of Eredivisie experience at PSV Eindhoven. Brazilian Andrey Santos and Cote d’Ivoire forward David Datro Fofana also have less than a season’s worth of minutes of senior level soccer under their belts in relatively weak leagues.

The average age of those signings is about 20 years old, and while Mudryk, Badeshile and Madueke might make themselves regulars this season, all those players have been bought with the future in mind.

Chelsea before Boehly’s arrival usually only spent on young players if they had already proven themselves abroad like Kai Havertz, who was already one of the Bundesliga’s standout players before moving to Stamford Bridge.

Boehly’s approach has been different though, as seen by last summer’s signing of Carney Chukwuemeka from Aston Villa for up to $25 million. Chukwuemeka still has less than 500 minutes of Premier League soccer under his belt.

This shift in spending partly explains why Chelsea can afford to spent so much money this season without falling foul of financial fair play rules. Mudryk’s fee is spread out over an extremely long contract, seven-and-a-half years with the option of one more year, and the Ukrainian is on relatively low wages, around $120,000 a week, which means his overall cost to Chelsea per year isn’t too high. The other signings are also on long contracts with Badiashile on a seven-and-a-half-year deal.

Chelsea’s previous spending over the last few seasons has partly been offset by sales of former youth team players like Tammy Abraham to Roma or Fikayo Tomori to AC Milan, giving them a bit more leeway when it comes to FFP rules.

This spending could also be a warning by Boehly to other clubs, and their potential buyers. With speculation that Liverpool and Manchester United could be up for sale, Boehly’s spending has effectively raised the barrier of entry, saying to the prospective buyers that they will have to spend hundreds of millions once they’ve bought those clubs if they want to reach the pinnacle of English soccer.

By buying up all the best young prospects, Chelsea are also making it tougher for their rivals to strengthen their squads a few years down the line.

But while Chelsea’s new signings this winter have potential, they also have very little experience, so the chances of any one of those players turning out to be a flop is quite high. They don’t need all of their January signings to become world class players, but they are still gambling more than a hundred million dollars on their ability to judge a player’s potential based on very few minutes.

If it fails, it could be difficult to shift those players on long contracts, which could then be a weight around Chelsea’s necks for years to come. If it works though, it could propel Chelsea to the top of English soccer.