ChatGPT predicts Take-Two stock price on GTA 6 release day

With the recent leak and subsequent launch of the highly-anticipated trailer for Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI), the shares of the franchise’s publisher – Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO)  – have been experiencing significant price action, both upward and downward.

While the leadup to the trailer’s release saw TTWO rising steadily, the launch led to a swift 24-hour decline on the stock market that the shares have only partially recovered from by the time of publication.

However, with the excitement surrounding GTA VI and the confirmation of its release year – 2025 – Finbold decided to consult the artificial intelligence (AI) of OpenAI’s flagship platform, ChatGPT, in an effort to figure out how Take-Two’s stock might fare once the game is actually launched.

ChatGPT assesses how TTWO might fare once GTA VI is released

ChatGPT began its analysis by assessing the impact previous GTA launches had on Take-Two Interactive’s stock and concluded that the franchise was always impactful and led to rallies – at least in the short-term – even with regard to the fourth installment, which launched in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis.

The AI also noted the already significant impact news pertaining to GTA VI has had on TTWO. The publisher’s shares dropped significantly in September 2022 after an early gameplay leak emerged, and in November 2023, on reports of an imminent official announcement, they surged.

Given these factors, ChatGPT predicted that the shares of Take-Two Interactive are likely to stand anywhere between $160 and $200. The artificial intelligence highlighted that the estimate was rather conservative and warned of the difficulties of providing a reliable prediction considering that the GTA VI release date is still distant and vague – currently, it is set for 2025.

ChatGPT offers alternative scenarios for TTWO price in 2025

In light of the difficulties of predicting events that are so far into the future, ChatGPT provided several alternative predictions based heavily on two factors – the overall reception of GTA VI and broader market conditions. 

GTA has a strong and well-earned reputation for quality, making a bad release unlikely – but there have been instances of highly-regarded studios suffering from bad launches, as was made apparent when CDProjektRed (WSE: CDR) botched the launch of its Cyberpunk 2077 game despite its previously-stellar track record.

Similarly, while the market is currently in the midst of a notable uptrend – leading many to believe that it is entering a new bull market – it is not guaranteed things will not take a turn for the worse, especially by the time GTA VI releases in 2025.

ChatGPT assessed that a scenario in which a bull market persists and the game is well-received, sending TTWO above $200 as the most likely. It also estimated a bull market paired with a poor reception could see the publisher’s shares between $160 and $180.

In the two scenarios that assume that the uptrend will not last, it estimated that a good launch would still take TTWO to the range between $150 and $180, while a poor launch could drop the stock to as low as $130.

The AI, however, also pointed out that its figures should be considered no more than educated guesses. When asked how confident in the prediction it is, it expressed a confidence level of only 40% in its most likely scenario – a bull market paired with a strong launch.

TTWO price analysis

While it is impossible to say for certain how TTWO will perform in 2025, its shares have been growing relatively steadily throughout 2023. Since January 1, the publisher’s stock is up a significant 52.99%.

TTWO has also been mostly in the green in the last 30 days – 17.40% – and in the last 7 days – 0.37%. Take-Two Interactive shares are worth $157.62  at the time of publication, having risen 0.55% during the last full trading day.

The publisher’s most recent performance on the stock market also highlights the impact GTA VI-related news is likely to have in the future. While there was significant enthusiasm in the lead-up to the official trailer, its premature launch sparked by a leak on X sent the shares into a short-lived but significant decline of approximately 5% in the extended hours trading between Monday and Tuesday.

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