Celtics Vs. Sixers Preview And Prediction

The Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics are headed for their third playoff showdown in the last six seasons. The Sixers can only hope this one turns out differently than the past two meetings.

In 2018, the Celtics knocked the Sixers out with a gentleman’s sweep. During the “bubble” playoffs at the Walt Disney World Resort two years later, the Celtics swept the Sixers, who were without lead ball-handler Ben Simmons.

Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Tobias Harris are still around three years later, but their supporting casts are otherwise almost completely different. Al Horford, whom the Sixers started for three games in the 2020 series, is now back in Boston. Rather than starting Josh Richardson and Shake Milton, as they did in 2020, the Sixers will be trotting out James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and P.J. Tucker.

The Celtics won three of their four regular-season games against the Sixers this year. The lone loss, which came without Brown and Robert Williams III, was a two-point defeat in which Embiid went off for 52 points on a preposterous 20-of-25 shooting.

Embiid’s status for the start of this series is still up in the air. He suffered a LCL sprain in his right knee in Game 3 of the Sixers’ first-round series against the Brooklyn Nets and sat out the closing Game 4. As a result, the Celtics opened as -290 favorites to win this series, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, while the Sixers are +235 underdogs.

Starting with Embiid’s health, the following factors will help determine which team moves on to the Eastern Conference Finals.

What If Embiid Misses Time?

It’s unclear whether Embiid will be ready for Game 1 on Monday. Last Friday, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski and Ramona Shelburne reported he “could be back in the lineup as soon as early next week.” However, head coach Doc Rivers told reporters after the closeout victory over the Nets that Embiid was “probably 50 percent at best” for Game 1.

In Embiid’s absence, third-year center Paul Reed went off for 10 points and a career-high 15 rebounds against the Nets in Game 4. He got off to a slow start, but he turned it around in the second half to help fuel a 21-4 third-quarter run that swung the game for good.

“The first half, I came out trying to force shots that weren’t the best looks for the team,” Reed told reporters after the game. “… Second half, I went out and every offensive rebound, if I didn’t have a wide-open layup, I kicked it out. It helped us a lot. We were getting a lot of good looks.”

The Celtics started Smart, Brown, Tatum, Horford and Derrick White throughout their first-round playoff series against the Atlanta Hawks. There’s no reason to expect them to change that unit, especially with Embiid’s health in question. Reed’s switchability could be an asset in guarding the stretchy Horford, but the Sixers will have to figure out how to survive against backup center Robert Williams III whenever Reed is off the floor.

Sixers head coach Doc Rivers turned to Montrezl Harrell in the first half of Game 4 against the Nets, but he trimmed his rotation to eight in the second half and turned to P.J. Tucker as a small-ball center without Reed. The Sixers would likely be better off going with those two rather than Harrell or Dewayne Dedmon, particularly since Georges Niang’s viability in this series remains an open question.

If Embiid does return at some point this series, though, he’ll immediately become the biggest mismatch on either side.

How Do The Celtics Guard Embiid?

In years past, few teams frustrated Embiid defensively more than the Celtics. Horford was able to hold his own 1-on-1 against Embiid at times, and the Celtics forced countless turnovers by swarming him with double-teams and sending help his way whenever he turned his back to the basket.

This year, they’ve had far less success. Embiid averaged 36.8 points on 61.2 percent shooting, 11.8 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 1.8 blocks per game in their four regular-season meetings, including the 52-point eruption and a 41-point, 12-rebound outing in late February.

Embiid has pivoted away from his traditional back-to-the-basket, post-up role in recent years. Instead, he’s operating more at the nail, which allows him to see the floor better and anticipate when help defenders are heading his way. The Nets relentlessly double- and triple-teamed him in the first round of the playoffs, which limited his scoring output, but he racked up nine secondary assists in only three games.

“Some nights, I might have to shoot and score a lot,” Embiid said after Game 2 against the Nets. “Some nights, I’m going to get double-teamed and make the passes. But I believe in playing the right way, which is getting your teammates involved, making sure everyone touches the ball and sees the ball. That’s what I believe in. “

The Celtics have far better defensive personnel than the Nets do, which makes Embiid’s health the biggest question mark of the series. If he’s compromised physically in any way, it could drastically change how the Celtics guard both him and his teammates.

Who Takes Tatum And Brown?

The last full-strength meeting between the Sixers and Celtics came back in late February, when De’Anthony Melton was still starting ahead of Maxey. In that game, Melton and Harris largely split defensive duty on Tatum, while Harris and Harden mostly split Brown. Meanwhile, Tucker took Horford, and Embiid roamed off Williams to provide help defense elsewhere.

With White in the starting lineup ahead of Williams, Tucker will likely shift on to either Tatum or Brown and Harris will take the other. The Sixers will try to hide Harden and Maxey on White and Smart, and either Embiid (health permitting) or Reed will earn the Horford assignment.

The real question is how much the Sixers are willing to switch 1-4 defensively. If they have confidence in Maxey and Harden holding their own against Tatum and Brown on switches, they might be willing to switch more liberally. If not, expect to see them fighting over and through a lot of screens.

Melton and Jalen McDaniels will come off the bench to provide a defensive reprieve, and both could play significant roles in this series. If the Harden-Maxey backcourt proves to be too much of a liability on defense or Tucker isn’t knocking down corner three-pointers, Melton and McDaniels figure to be next in line for minutes. Danuel House Jr. could be a change-of-pace option if all else fails.

Can James Harden Finish?

Harden had an up-and-down series against the Nets, to put it kindly.

The 10-time All-Star shot 7-of-13 from three-point range in Game 1 to rack up 23 points, but that masked a 1-of-8 performance from inside the arc. He followed that up with only eight points on 3-of-13 shooting (including 1-of-5 from two-point range) in Game 2, which raised questions about whether he was still feeling the lingering effects of an Achilles injury that hampered him late in the regular season.

Harden bounced back with 21 points on 8-of-15 shooting in Game 3 (prior to his ejection), but he had only 17 points on 4-of-18 shooting in the closeout Game 4. He did draw eight free-throw attempts in that game after finishing with only three across the first three games combined, but he wound up shooting a horrific 7-of-30 from the paint in the series.

Nets wing Mikal Bridges, who finished as the runner-up in the Defensive Player of the Year race last season, hounded Harden throughout most of the series. Harden won’t get a reprieve against Boston, as he’ll be sparring with Smart (who beat Bridges for DPOY last year), White, Tatum and Brown.

If Embiid is healthy enough to play, the Sixers don’t need Harden to score 30-plus points every night like he did during his prime with the Houston Rockets. They need him to serve as the primary ball-handler and playmaker, particularly in half-court settings. But if his shooting efficiency remains in the toilet, especially around the rim, it’ll be tough sledding for the Sixers to win this series.

Can Maxey Keep It Up?

Maxey had a quiet Game 1 against the Nets, finishing with only 13 points on 3-of-8 shooting. He then erupted for 33 points on 13-of-23 shooting in Game 2 and helped slam the door shut on the Nets in Game 3 by scoring 10 straight points in the final few minutes.

Without Embiid drawing double- and triple-teams in Game 4, Maxey had only 16 points on 6-of-20 shooting. But even if Embiid suits up against Boston, Maxey will have to overcome some concerning trends.

In the Sixers’ four regular-season meetings with the Celtics this season, Maxey averaged only 10.0 points on 35.4 percent shooting overall and 21.4 percent from deep (3-of-14). He came off the bench for two of those games, but he topped eight points only once against Boston this season.

White drew the primary defensive assignment on Maxey in the regular season and held him to 7-of-22 shooting overall and 2-of-7 from deep. Meanwhile, Harden attempted only three shots when matched up against Smart during the regular season.

If Maxey and Harden don’t figure out ways to score efficiently against the Celtics’ backcourt, the Sixers will need a Herculean effort from the rest of their roster to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Dropping The Drop (And The Zone?)

With Embiid manning the middle, the Sixers typically play a form of drop coverage to keep him close to the basket for rim protection. Although he can play a more switch-heavy scheme, he prefers their traditional strategy.

“I think in the beginning, we went away from what worked in the past,” Embiid told reporters in mid-November. “Especially, with me on the floor switching everything. I can do it, but that’s not my best attribute. I can guard guards and chase them all over the place, but then again, I’m 6’10”. I should be in the paint blocking shots and protecting the rim. That’s what I’m good at.”

The Sixers also tend to pivot into a zone defense at times to throw opponents off-balance. However, they might need to alter their traditional scheme and cut back on the zone against the Celtics, who are one of the NBA’s best-shooting teams.

During the regular season, the Celtics were second in both made three-pointers (16.0) and three-pointers attempted per game (42.6), and they were sixth in three-point shooting percentage (37.7 percent). Horford, White and Malcolm Brogdon all shot at least 38 percent from deep on four or more three-point attempts per game, while Sam Hauser (41.8 percent on 4.2 attempts per game), Grant Williams (39.5 percent on 3.7 attempts per game) and Mike Muscala (38.5 percent on 3.3 attempts per game) could get some run if/when the Sixers do go to a zone.

The Sixers were right around the league average in volume of three-point attempts allowed (33.4 per game), but they were fifth in both made threes allowed (11.6) and three-point shooting percentage (34.8). They’ll need to find a way to cool off the Celtics’ shooters and force them more into the mid-range, where they only took 25.7 percent of their shots during the regular season.

Time To Tighten The Rotation?

Outside of garbage time, the Sixers ran with a nine-man rotation in the first round of the playoffs. Maxey, Harden, Tucker, Harris and Embiid started, and Melton, Reed, McDaniels and Niang came off the bench.

They might need to tighten the rotation further against Boston. As Andrew Unterberger of the Rights to Ricky Sanchez noted, Niang did not fare well against the Celtics during the regular season.

The Sixers figure to give Niang a try in Game 1 just to see if his shot-making outweighs his defensive limitations. But if the Celtics target him whenever he’s on the floor, Rivers might need to have a quick hook.

Final Thoughts And Prediction

More than anything else, Embiid’s health will define this series. If he’s physically compromised in any way, it’s hard to see the Sixers having enough firepower to vanquish their division rivals.

The Celtics’ tendency to play with their food came back to bite them in Round 1, as they blew a double-digit fourth-quarter lead in Game 5 to extend the series and give Embiid two more days of rest. They can’t afford those types of slip-ups against the Sixers, particularly if Embiid is anything close to his MVP-caliber self.

Although Embiid is the biggest mismatch in the series, the Celtics’ strengths (three-point shooting, elite wings and a strong defensive backcourt) are almost tailor-made to exploit the Sixers’ weaknesses. The Sixers will need to be far better than they were against the Nets to stand a chance in this series.

The Sixers aren’t drawing dead against the Celtics by any means, but the Celtics are deserving favorites here, particularly since they have home-court advantage. Given the questions about Embiid’s knee, it’s hard to have faith in the Sixers’ ability to topple them and move on to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in more than 20 years.

Prediction: Celtics in 6

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.