Key Insights
- Cardano Price could fall to $0.25-$0.35 if short-term support fails, analyst warns.
- Dan Gambardello identifies three price scenarios ranging from $0.35 to sub-$0.25.
- First support zone at $0.35-$0.45 carries 60% probability of testing.
Cryptocurrency analyst Dan Gambardello shared three potential downside scenarios for Cardano price in a recent analysis.
He shared the most severe possibility for a drop to $0.25-$0.35 if current support structures fails.
The technical breakdown comes as ADA price plunged over 15% in the last seven days and declined 37% over the past 30 days.
Cardano Price Faces Three Potential Scenarios
Dan Gambardello presented three distinct downside scenarios for Cardano price based on different market conditions.
The first scenario targets $0.35-$0.45, which the analyst assigned a 60% probability. This range would be a continuation of the current drop from $0.52 levels.
Gambardello noted “it just sounds good, it seems like it’s very much in play where this could happen.”
The second scenario projects Cardano (ADA) price falling to $0.25-$0.35 if the cryptocurrency experiences a structural bottom failure similar to patterns observed in Ethereum.
This deeper drawdown would test support zones established during summer 2024. The analyst clarified this scenario requires failure of support that has held for months.
The third and most severe scenario envisions Cardano price dropping below $0.25 in a full cycle reset.
Gambardello assigned just 10% probability to this outcome, noting it would only occur if macro liquidity completely fails.
Gambardello emphasized these projections don’t necessarily preclude an “epic turn in liquidity cycle and an epic bull run for cryptos.”
The analyst framed the scenarios as contingency planning rather than predictions. He stated that his analysis applies “if we fail kind of putting in some type of bottom some type of structured move.”
Cardano (ADA) Price action in coming weeks will determine which scenario materializes.
Analyst Identifies $0.35-$0.45 Support Zone
The $0.35-$0.45 range is the highest probability outcome according to Gambardello’s analysis.
Cardano (ADA) Price already tested the upper end of this zone, briefly dipping into the $0.40s before recovering to $0.52.
The analyst noted the difficulty for ADA holders watching the decline, stating “it’s tough right? I get it for ADA holders for all coin holders.”
Cardano Price testing $0.35-$0.45 would be approximately 30-35% downside from current $0.52 levels.
Gambardello’s comparison of ADA to Ethereum suggests similar patterns across major altcoins during periods of reduced market liquidity and risk-off sentiment.
Sub $0.25 Remains Possible But Requires This
The most extreme scenario projecting Cardano price below $0.25 carries just 10% probability but would represent a full cycle reset.
Gambardello specified this outcome needs macro liquidity failure extending beyond cryptocurrency-specific factors.
The sub-$0.25 level would break all support zones established since summer 2024 and is a new multi-year low.
The analyst’s low probability assignment shows his view that broader market conditions favor eventual liquidity expansion.
Gambardello noted massive capital waiting to enter the crypto space, upcoming deregulation, and the Clarity Act as positive catalysts.
The total altcoin market cap excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins sits at just $1 trillion, which the analyst views as “incredibly small” relative to potential capital inflows.
Cardano price falling to sub-$0.25 would contribute to altcoin market cap declining by approximately 50% from $1 trillion to $500 billion.
Gambardello questioned whether such a decline makes sense given regulatory progress and institutional interest.
The analyst suggested this scenario would create “so much capital and more redistribution” as buyers accumulate at extreme discounts.
The analyst revealed his personal positioning, stating,
“I’d rather be wrong and round trip into that bear market if that was going to happen and accumulate more in those areas than to not have proper exposure for a continued bull market.”