Key Insights
- Cardano (ADA) price has dropped over 17% in seven days and is still trading inside a bearish channel.
- On-chain activity fell from 168M to 40M, showing lower selling pressure but cautious buying.
- A daily close below $0.28 could open the door for a deeper drop toward $0.18.
Cardano price has come under strong pressure over the past week. Between late January and early February, ADA price fell more than 17%, dropping close to the $0.28 level.
Even though it feels like one of the weakest large-cap cryptocurrencies around, the ADA price chart does show mixed signs — both bullish and bearish.
Cardano Price Is Still Trading Inside a Bearish Channel
After peaking in December, Cardano price began forming lower highs and lower lows, currently shown as a falling channel.
ADA price is now trading close to $0.28. The recent crash saw it dip to even $0.26, but there has been some recovery.
Even after this rebound, the ADA price remains inside the same falling channel. That tells us the broader trend has not changed.
Buyers have not been strong enough to push prices above key resistance levels. The most important level to watch on the upside is around $0.34. This is close to the 0.618 Fibonacci level and past support.
If Cardano price cannot reclaim this zone, most bounces could end up failing. On the downside, $0.28 is now the main support.
This level has held for the moment. But if ADA price closes below $0.28 on a daily basis, selling pressure could increase quickly.
In that case, the next major support sits near $0.18. This would mean another drop of around 34% from current levels.
ADA Price Momentum Aligns but Could Meet Resistance
Momentum indicators help explain why Cardano price bounced after the crash. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index formed a bullish divergence between November and January.
In other words, as the ADA price dipped, the indicator trended up. After touching lows near $0.26, buyers stepped in and pushed the price back toward $0.28.
The divergence helped trigger this bounce. However, this does not mean a full trend change has happened.
Right now, RSI is still below the 50 level. This means momentum remains weak. In strong recoveries, RSI usually moves above 50 and stays there. Cardano price has not done that yet.
Also, RSI is still far from previous bullish peaks. It is moving in line with price instead of showing strong separation. This suggests that the rebound may only be a temporary relief move.
For a stronger recovery signal, ADA would need:
- RSI to move above 50 and hold
- Price to break out of the falling channel
- Higher highs and higher lows to form
Until these happen, the current bounce should be treated with caution.
Cardano On-Chain Data Shows Selling Has Slowed
On-chain data adds another layer to the picture for Cardano price. One important metric is the Spent Coins Age Band.
This shows how many coins are being moved by different groups of holders. High values usually mean more selling or profit-taking. Low values mean coins are staying still.
Between Jan. 25 and Jan. 31, this metric surged to around 168 million ADA. This spike matched the sharp sell-off at the end of January.
Since then, activity has dropped sharply. It has fallen to around 40 million ADA. This is close to a three-month low.
This tells us something important for the Cardano price. Fewer coins are moving now. Large holders and long-term investors are no longer rushing to sell. This often happens when panic selling ends.
In simple terms, selling pressure has cooled down. This is a positive sign for stability. When coins stop moving, the price often finds temporary support.
However, whale data shows that confidence is still limited. Wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA have increased their holdings slightly.
Their balance rose from about 13.36 billion to 13.5 billion ADA. This shows some cautious buying.
But other major groups have not joined in strongly. This fits with the broader picture. Selling has slowed, but strong accumulation has not started yet, which could push Cardano (ADA) price higher, rather quickly.