Canelo Alvarez Vs. John Ryder: Odds, Records, Prediction

Canelo Alvarez has been a professional boxer for 17 years and 62 fights. At the age of 32, he should still be in his prime, at least by the standards of most super middleweights. But after his wide decision loss to Dmitry Bivol 364 days ago, questions began to surface about whether Alvarez had begun to lose some of the skills that had made him the best boxer in the world. His performance Saturday vs. John Ryder might give us another clue to determine whether those questions have legitimacy. Here’s everything you need to know about the DAZN PPV showdown of Canelo Alvarez vs. John Ryder, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

Last May, Bivol beat Alvarez in an easier fashion than many people expected. Alvarez returned last November and swatted away Gennadiy Golovkin for the second time, but it was the blowout of an aging Golovkin that many people were expecting.

That leaves some people wondering: Is Alvarez starting to get old?

At this point, I still think he’s one of the best in the world (he’s No. 4 on my pound-for-pound list), and Ryder doesn’t have the skills to make him answer that question. Though Alvarez is coming off a wrist injury that required surgery, he is still the undisputed super middleweight champion. Alvarez is still comfortable with his standing in the sport.

“I’m so excited to show everybody they’re wrong,” Alvarez said. “I feel very good. I have a lot of years in my career; 17 years as a pro. I’ve had injuries too. I’m not at my best but I’m very motivated and I’m very happy to be in the gym, to train at 100%, and they’re going to see what is coming. I’m very excited and motivated. Be careful with that.

Ryder, meanwhile, is happy to travel to Mexico for the opportunity to fight Alvarez in his home country. Sure, Ryder has never beaten anybody close to the caliber of Alvarez, but he thinks he can pull off what would be a major upset.

“I think that the pressure is on him,” Ryder said. “It’s been a long time since he boxed here and who expects anything of me? No one. People think I am here for the paycheck. I am not. I am here to show that dreams can come true. I’ve worked hard to get here, and I deserve to be here . . . I think it is a good time to fight him; he has a lot of miles on the clock. Obviously, he’s had the surgery on his hand and maybe there’s question marks on wear and tear, but I want the best version of him because I will give the best version of me.”

There’s plenty at stake for Alvarez. That includes his four 168-pound titles and his potential rematch with Bivol (or perhaps, more enticingly, a showdown vs. David Benavidez).

“He [Ryder] has everything to win, nothing to lose, right?” Alvarez said. “He’s always there, fighting with the good fighters trying to get that opportunity, and now he got it. It’s going to be a danger for me, but I feel good.”

Here’s more info on the Canelo Alvarez vs. John Ryder showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on PPV.com for $79.99 beginning at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday.

Canelo Alvarez vs. John Ryder odds

Unsurprisingly, Alvarez is a huge betting favorite at -1600 (bet $1,600 on a $100 bet), while Ryder sits as a +900 underdog (win $900 on a $100 wager). I’d ignore both money lines. I’d take Alvarez to win by stoppage at -300 or, even better, take him to win by KO in rounds 1-6 at +225. I have a difficult time seeing Ryder either winning by KO/TKO (+1800) or by decision (+2000), but forced to pick one, I’d go with a Ryder to win by stoppage and hope that Alvarez has to stop fighting because of an injury during the bout.

Canelo Alvarez vs. John Ryder records

Aside from losing to Bivol, Alvarez (58-2-2, 39 KOs) has been on a spectacular run, beating Golovkin twice and Callum Smith, knocking out Caleb Plant, stopping Billy Joe Saunders, and pummeling Sergey Kovalev. The last two times Alvarez has fought somebody who’s not at the elite level—Avni Yildirim and Rocky Fielding—he knocked out both in the third round.

Ryder’s record of 32-5 (18 KOs) isn’t overly impressive, but he is coming off the two biggest wins of his career—a split decision vs. Daniel Jacobs and a stoppage vs. the undefeated Zach Parker (Parker suffered a hand injury during the fight and had to withdraw). Many believe he should have gotten the win vs. the then-undefeated Callum Smith in 2019 that would have given Ryder a world title. Three of Ryder’s losses were against men (Smith, Saunders and Fielding) who eventually would lose definitively to Alvarez.

Canelo Alvarez vs. John Ryder prediction

This should be a great night for Alvarez, fighting in his home town and showing again why he’s currently the best 168-pounder in the world. Ryder is tough, so this won’t be an absolute early blowout. But Alvarez will be ultra-motivated to end this fight early. Say Alvarez by stoppage in the fifth round.