Canelo Alvarez Vs. Gennadiy Golovkin: Odds, Records, Prediction

Canelo Alvarez needs a win against Gennadiy Golovkin to prove that he’s still one of the best fighters in the world. Gennadiy Golvokin needs a win against Canelo Alvarez because he feels the judges treated him unfairly in their previous fights. On Saturday night, the two will clash for the third (and probably) the last time for Alvarez’s undisputed super middleweight championship. Here’s everything you need to know about Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennadiy Golovkin, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

Not many observers are giving Golovkin much of a chance. It’s been clear for the past several years that he has long exited the prime of his career. Though he continues to beat everybody who’s not named Canelo Alvarez, he had a more difficult time topping fighters like Sergiy Derevyanchenko and Ryota Murata than most observers would have expected.

He’s not as quick as he was before. He still has punching power, but it’s also taking him longer to get in position to knock out his opponents than it did when he was in his early to mid-30s. Now, he’s 40 years old, and it seems like Alvarez—who has a draw and a win vs. Golovkin—could have his most defining victory against Golovkin yet. Some are even predicting a stoppage.

“He’s a great fighter. He’s one of the best middleweights in boxing history,” Alvarez told me last month. “But that’s what I train for. My goal is to end his career, his great career.”

A knockout loss against his biggest rival certainly could lead Golovkin to walk away from his Hall of Fame career. But what if he could score the upset? What if he discovers that moving up to 168 pounds after spending his career at 160 pounds will make him even stronger than before? Could Golovkin pull off the improbable?

It’s possible. Last month, I asked Golovkin, through an interpreter, about having to move up in weight, and well, it didn’t sound like he was in love with being a super middleweight after spending so long as a middleweight.

“I wouldn’t say I feel any distinct differences, that I’m stronger or faster,” he said. “I feel great at 160. I feel strong. I feel fast. It’s somewhat different at 168. Like, I feel a little heavier. But I have more presence.”

Whether that eight pounds of extra presence will give Golovkin a better chance remains to be seen. But Alvarez could counter that by training with renewed vigor after his loss to Dmitry Bivol four months ago.

You could make that argument that Alvarez will win, and you can make the argument that Golovkin will win. But either way, one of the most anticipated matchups of the year has plenty of observers excited.

“These are two men that bitterly dislike each other and want to end this incredible series with a blistering KO,” promoter Eddie Hearn said. “I truly believe this will be the most thrilling fight between these two great champions and it will be fireworks from the first bell to the last man standing.”

Here’s more info on the Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennadiy Golovkin showdown that U.S. viewers can watch for $64.99 on DAZN PPV beginning at 8 p.m. ET.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennadiy Golovkin odds

The betting odds for this fight keep getting wider and wider. As of this writing, Alvarez is a -600 favorite (bet $600 to win $100), while Golovkin is a +425 underdog (win $425 on a $100 wager). Considering that, when the fight was first announced, Alvarez was -350 and Golovkin was +260, bettors clearly are putting their money on Alvarez. If you want to wager on Alvarez, I’d skip the money line and go with Alvarez by decision at +105. Golovkin winning by decision at +750 also could provide good value.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennadiy Golovkin records

Before falling to Bivol in May, Alvarez (57-2-2, 39 KOs) had gone nine years without a loss—and that came against Floyd Mayweather. Since then, Alvarez, the former No. 1 pound for pound fighter in the world, has won world titles at junior middleweight, middleweight, super middleweight and light heavyweight and has beaten Miguel Cotto, Amir Khan, Daniel Jacobs, Sergey Kovalev, Callum Smith and Caleb Plant.

The only two blemishes on Golovkin’s record of 42-1-1 (37 KOs) have come courtesy of Alvarez. Otherwise, Golovkin has wins vs. David Lemieux, Kell Brook and Murata. Later in his career, as he’s passed out of his prime, he’s had close decision victories vs. Daniel Jacobs and Derevyanchenko. Still, Golovkin has found a way to beat everybody he’s faced in his career. Except Alvarez.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennadiy Golovkin prediction

It’s possible Golovkin can land a flush shot, and it’s possible that it could hurt Alvarez. It’s possible Golovkin could outwork Alvarez for much of the fight and then hold him off at the end. But otherwise, Golvokin will have a difficult time beating Alvarez. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Alvarez stop Golovkin, but I think Golovkin will fight ahrd to the end and survive all 12 rounds. Say, Alvarez by unanimous decision while scoring his first non-controversial victory against Golovkin, somewhere in the 116-112 neighborhood.