Canelo Alvarez Vs. Dmitry Bivol: Odds, Purses, Records, Prediction

Canelo Alvarez has already held a light heavyweight title, knocking out Sergey Kovalev in 2019 to grab his belt. Now, Alvarez wants another chance to add to his world title collection. But it won’t be a surprise if current titlist Dmitry Bivol provides Alvarez with an even tougher challenge in the 175-pound weight class on Saturday night than Kovalev did. Here’s everything you need to know about Canelo Alvarez vs. Dmitry Bivol, including the odds, purses, their records and a prediction on who will win.

While Kovalev was a heavier puncher than Bivol, his skills had already begun to deteriorate when he matched up vs. Alvarez. The two traded on even terms for much of the bout, but by the end, Alvarez wore him down and left Kovalev laying on the canvas. Bivol is more technically skilled than Kovalev was, and he’s still in his prime.

He’s not always the most exciting fighter, particularly because he’s not usually aggressive with his punch output, but Bivol’s skillset should cause concern for Alvarez.

“[Bivol] has been looking for an opportunity like this for a long time; this is not a young man who’s reached the end of his career or is past his prime,” said Matchroom Boxing’s Eddie Hearn. “This is an outstanding champion in his absolute prime ready for the opportunity of his life against the pound-for-pound king of boxing.”

Said Bivol: “I believe in my skills, and when I come to the ring, I believe in my victory.”

Bivol has a knack for soundly out-boxing power punchers, like Joe Smith Jr. and Sullivan Barrera. Alvarez is a power puncher, and he’s done a nice job (so far, at least) of carrying his power into the 168- and 175-pound weight divisions. But Bivol is four inches taller than Alvarez, and he’s never been knocked down.

Yes, Bivol’s power isn’t always evident, and Alvarez has a fantastic chin. But it remains to be seen whether Alvarez can turn the momentum of the fight around by hurting Bivol if he’s being out-boxed.

“I like challenges, it makes me feel alive—challenges for me in everything in my life,” Alvarez said. “I like a good challenge, and now, I have a very good fighter in front of me and I’m excited for this fight … This fight is going to be really hard.”

Here’s more info on the Canelo Alvarez vs. Dmitry Bivol showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on DAZN PPV for $59.99 beginning at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Dmitry Bivol odds

Alvarez has been a solid betting favorite since this fight was first announced, but Bivol’s odds continue to get longer. As of this writing, Alvarez was a -550 favorite (bet $550 to win $100), while Bivol was a +400 underdog (win $400 on a $100 wager).

I wouldn’t bother with Alvarez’s money line, but if you think Bivol could beat Alvarez once out of every five times they fought (and I think that’s certainly a possibility), you could snatch him up at his money line price. If he got to +425 or +450, there would even be more value in Bivol. As for Alvarez, I’d probably take him to win by decision at -150, but considering his 11^th-round stoppage victories against Kovalev and Plant, I don’t mind the idea of taking him to win by KO/TKO in rounds 9-12 at +650.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Dmitry Bivol purses

Alvarez is building up quite a bank account. After making $35 million vs. Kovalev, $20 million vs. Callum Smith, and reportedly about $40 million in his last fight vs. Caleb Plant, Alvarez could make up to $40 million on Saturday (a $15 million guaranteed purse plus back-end revenues from the PPV), according to the Sporting News.

Bivol, meanwhile, will make a guaranteed $2 million purse along with a portion of PPV sales.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Dmitry Bivol records

Alvarez hasn’t lost since falling to Floyd Mayweather in 2013, and in building up his 57-1-2 (39 KOs) record, he’s gotten better and better in the ring. In the last three years, he’s beaten Kovalev, Daniel Jacobs, Callum Smith, Billy Joe Saunders and Caleb Plant. Those last three were undefeated world titlists when they faced Alvarez, and all of them got dominated or stopped. There’s a good reason why the smaller Alvarez is such a big betting favorite on Saturday.

Bivol (19-0, 11 KOs) is undefeated, and he’s never been in much danger of losing. His victory against Joe Smith Jr. was fantastic, and the fact he stopped Sullivan Barrera a couple of years after Barrera survived all 12 rounds against Andre Ward was impressive. But Bivol hasn’t scored a stoppage since 2018, and though he’s generally levels above his opposition, he’s not always inspiring. He’ll have to be vs. Alvarez to get the victory.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Dmitry Bivol prediction

Alvarez has had problems in the past with truly skilled boxers who can move around the ring (Floyd Mayweather, Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout, for example). Assuming Bivol can outbox Alvarez for much of this fight and can stay away from Alvarez’s power shots, Alvarez is going to have a tough time. But it’s nearly impossible to bet against Alvarez at this point in his career. He’ll figure out Bivol, maybe hurt him late in the fight and walk away with a close decision victory. Somewhere in the 115-112 range.