Canada Announces Immigration Projections For 2024 And Beyond

A spate of Canadian immigration announcements appeared recently that provide a glimpse into how many immigrants can expect to be approved for entry into Canada next year and beyond. Canada’s immigration levels will remain unchanged for 2024 with a target of 485,000 new immigrants. In 2025 and 2026, Canada will look to welcome 500,000 new immigrants in each year. By comparison, on average America has taken in about 1,250,000 immigrants per year in the past and it is ten times the size of Canada.

Breakdown Of The Numbers

A breakdown of the 2024 projection is as follows:

1) Canada will welcome about 281,135 immigrants under the economic class or 58% of the annual target. Breaking that number down further, the Express Entry target will be 110,700 permanent resident admissions in 2024. This means Express Entry will return to being Canada’s main economic class admissions pathway.

2) The family class target will be 114,000 immigrants or 24% of all admissions. Spousal, Partner, and Children sponsorship has a target of 82,000 admissions in 2024, and the Parents and Grandparents Program (PGP) target will be 32,000.

3) Humanitarian admission targets will be 89,865 immigrants or about 19% of all admissions. These totals include refugees, protected persons, and those admitted for humanitarian, compassionate, or other reasons.

4) The Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) target that is run by the provinces will be 110,000 immigrants.

The government also plans to take action over the next year to re-calibrate the number of temporary resident admissions to ensure this aspect of our immigration system also remains sustainable.”

By comparison, American immigration policy is more family oriented and does not have the express entry system of numerical sorting that Canada employs to determine which immigrants should be granted permanent residence based on their potential economic and social benefit.

A New Strategy

The new strategy, entitled An Immigration System for Canada’s Future, has three major goals:

• Create a more welcoming experience for newcomers
• Align immigration with labor market needs
• Develop a comprehensive and coordinated growth plan

Canada is currently trying to cope with an affordability crisis and housing shortage that has led to several polls indicating less enthusiasm among Canadians for immigration than in previous years. However, IRCC continues to maintain high immigration targets because of a shortage of skilled labour in the face of a low birth rate and the impending retirement of millions of Canadian workers as they reach 65. As it stands, Statistics Canada’s most recent population estimate shows that newcomers are responsible for 98% of Canada’s population growth.

Quebec also tabled its immigration levels plan for 2024 and 2025 today. Quebec is the only province in Canada with the ability to shape its annual permanent resident admissions targets. Today, the province announced it will look to welcome 50,000 new immigrants in 2024. It has indicated that all economic immigrants to Quebec will have to pass a French language test. Some prominent immigration commentators have predicted a difficult road ahead regarding imposing this requirement on the immigrant population.

Wide-Ranging Policy Areas

The details of the immigration strategy are extensive and wide ranging to the point where it is difficult to discern what are the Canadian government’s top immigration priorities. Much of what is in the announcement is a collection of information that has been previously publicly announced, such as for example, the talent strategy which includes an open work permit for H-1B visa holders to bolster the strength of the North American tech sector, a digital nomad strategy to promote Canada as a remote work destination with the possibility to remain upon receipt of a job offer, and development of additional options for highly talented individuals to come to Canada to work with or without a job offer.

Other areas covered include housing and health care, reducing wait times and improving services, building a modern online system for handling immigration applications, handling refugees, promoting rural development, promoting francophone immigrants and respecting indigenous values.

Most of these concerns are addressed by the American immigration system as well.

Clarity Missing

But again, there is a lack of clarity on what is the priority. Traditionally, Canadian governments have proudly unveiled new projected immigration numbers in announcements but have been hazy on program details. In that respect, these announcements follow suit. Setting processing targets in all federal immigration programs and meeting them would be an especially welcomed development. But the government meticulously avoids any such commitments.

One growing area of concern in the immigration field is the looming problem of over 100 million uprooted migrants who have become displaced by virtue of wars, poverty, hunger, violence, and ecological disruptions such as earthquakes, droughts, and climate change. While some of these migrants are refugees, most are not. Too often, refugee law and policy is used to address this area when it was not designed to cover the breadth of the problem. No clear and coherent international policy exists on how to address this matter and Canada could play a key role in dealing with it. This is an area where the United States should be playing a leading role as well.