Can Tyler Herro Redeem Himself This Season?

Reputations in the NBA are a tricky thing, subjective as they are. They change quickly, especially where what-have-you-done-lately is the norm, rather than the exception. Tyler Herro’s offseason is the perfect – and fully undeserving – example.

Herro’s growth has been divisive for fans around the league. He frustrated as a 19-year-old rookie, taking and making big shots with the brash confidence that belied his youthful appearance. During his second season, big expectations were bogged down by the shortest offseason in NBA history, along with an ever-changing role. Trade talk soon materialized, along with speculation that the Miami Heat had grown weary of Herro. In his third season, Herro proved to be an elite shooter and scorer off the bench, good enough to win the Sixth Man of the Year award in 2022. His reward later that offseason was to be included in trade rumors for both Donovan Mitchell and Kevin Durant.

This past year, Herro’s shooting numbers were slightly worse, even as he averaged highs in minutes, rebounds, and assists per game, while also hitting free throws at a career-high. Regular-season numbers, however, were not really the barometer by which success would be measured. After his rookie postseason breakout, Herro’s playoff production has been called into question.

Herro approached the 2023 playoffs knowing he had something to prove. He’d never have the chance to prove it, injuring his hand in Game 1 of Miami’s preliminary series versus the Milwaukee Bucks. Herro would miss the rest of the playoffs, even as the Heat would bond together and push through to the Finals.

As Miami advanced past the Bucks, New York Knicks and Boston Celtics, front offices and media members took note. Some began to theorize that Miami’s deep run might have been because of, and not despite, Herro’s injury. For one, Herro’s defensive abilities came into question, noting he might likely have been targeted repeatedly by any Heat opponent. Additionally, Miami’s offense might have been more egalitarian in its approach without Herro needing the ball to provide an impact.

The perspective is moot. There’s no way of proving it, one way or the other. Just as some might argue that Gabe Vincent, Max Strus or Caleb Martin might not have been able to contribute offensively had Herro played, it’s just as easy to consider that their contributions might not have been needed had Herro been healthy.

But the possibility existed and that was enough. Additionally, Miami’s failed pursuit of Damian Lillard did more to tarnish public opinion of Herro than anything he did on the court over his first four seasons. Fans took to social media to discredit Herro’s impact, while the Portland Trail Blazers front office chose not to engage the Heat in trade talks. Connecting dots that didn’t exist, the theory became that Herro holds far less value around the league than a typical 23-year-old, 20-points-per-game scorer.

Reported inclusion in talks for Durant, Lillard or Mitchell certainly doesn’t help. The converse, however, is also true: Herro played a part in those trade scenarios because he is Miami’s third-best trade asset, behind only Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.

After the Heat missed out on Bradley Beal, Lillard and, consequently, Jrue Holiday, there’s a greater sense of the unknown about Miami’s chances this season. One cannot discredit the team’s success during Butler’s stint with the Heat — two Finals trips plus one more to the Eastern Conference finals in 2022 — but there’s also no way of knowing whether Miami can continue to eke out deep playoff runs with a roster that appears less talented than other contenders in the East. Behind the playoff brilliance of Butler and head coach Erik Spoelstra, the possibility exists that anything can happen because it already has.

Miami’s best chance at a successful season is for Herro to strike a delicate balance, overlooking Miami’s reported interest in dealing him for a well-established star while continuing to grow more consistent as a scorer, defender and playmaker. Butler, Adebayo and Spoelstra have raised Miami’s floor considerably, but Herro, should he take a leap, will be most responsible for raising the team’s ceiling.

There are unanswered questions about a roster that lost Strus and Vincent, while adding only veterans Josh Richardson, Thomas Bryant and rookie Javier Jaquez, Jr. Point guard, or whatever that position has evolved into in today’s league, is a primary concern as well, with only Kyle Lowry as Dru Smith currently on the team. Herro might very well find himself starting in the backcourt alongside Richardson as the team’s de facto floor general. The Heat ran this experiment unsuccessfully during Herro’s second season but evolving into that role this year could be the breakout opportunity he needs to show his value to a doubtful constituency.

Miami’s offseason has largely been considered a failure. The departure of Strus and Vincent, while perhaps somewhat overstated, removes two role players promoted to the starting unit out of the equation. No clear upgrade was made and positional areas of need were not addressed. And Butler, now 34, might not be able to maintain his regular-season efficiency.

This is Herro’s best, and perhaps last, chance to show if there’s All-Star potential waiting to be fulfilled. Failure to do so would lend credence to those critiques that have become deafening over the offseason. But should he embrace his new role and thrive in doing so, it might make Miami’s failed pursuits of a third star redundant with Herro already on the roster.