Can They Stop Jimmy Butler?

The Milwaukee Bucks finally know who their first-round playoff opponent will be when they tip-off on Saturday: The Miami Heat.

The Heat lost on their home floor to the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday before orchestrating a late rally on Friday night against the Chicago Bulls to secure the eighth and final seed in the Eastern Conference.

Miami was seen as, by far, the best play-in team, so Milwaukee might not be the happiest they get to host them in the first round. After the heat completed a gentlemen’s sweep in the 2020 semi-finals and Milwaukee got a clean sweep in the 2021 first-round, this will be the third time in four years the two teams have played in the postseason.

It’s safe to say they are familiar with each other’s games. However, let’s take a deeper look at Miami and perform a SWOT analysis on their game. We’ll look at their Strengths and Weaknesses, what Opportunities the Bucks have to exploit them, and any Threats Miami poses.

Strengths

Jimmy Butler

Butler is asked to do everything on both ends of the court. He’s the only Heat player who can consistently create a shot for both himself and his teammates. He’s also their best perimeter defender (and it’s not even close).

He loves to hunt mismatches by either receiving a ball screen or setting one. He’ll have his eyes on the likes of Grayson Allen and Jevon Carter when they’re in the game and try to get them to switch onto him before taking them down low in the post. Of the 29 players who isolate at least three times a game, he ranks 11th in points per possession at 1.05. He’ll be asked to play Superman in this series and carry the Heat to an upset victory.

Multiple Defensive Coverages

Erik Spoelstra will defend the Bucks with multiple defensive coverages throughout the series, a game, and maybe even a possession. Miami is as versatile as it comes in this dimension and it keeps opposing offenses out of rhythm (the Heat had the seventh-best defensive rating, according to Cleaning the Glass).

Miami will have no issue playing zone, switching screens, running drop coverage or trapping on ball screens. They played a little of everything in the regular season against the Bucks, so we’ll have to see what they roll out in Game 1.

Preventing Shots at the Rim

The Heat are a great team when it comes to preventing teams from getting shots around the rim, as they gave up the fourth-fewest shots within four feet of the basket this season, pushing teams out to the three-point line (where they ranked second-to-last) instead. Their help defense is active and aware of what is happening with the ball and it’s a team effort. They’ll need all hands on deck to prevent Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday from getting shots up around the basket.

Weaknesses

Scoring

The Heat will want to turn this series into a slug-fest, as they don’t have the offensive firepower to stick with Milwaukee for seven games. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Heat ranked 25th in the NBA in both points per 100 possessions and effective field goal percentage. They simply don’t have enough shot-makers on their roster.

Allowing Threes

Where they are good at preventing shots from the rim, they struggle at stopping three-point shots from happening. They gave up the fifth-most three point attempts per 100 possessions. The three-ball will be there for Milwaukee.

Depth

Miami lost some key players from last year’s team that secured the best record in the Eastern Conference Finals. Other than Butler, they don’t have a reliable second scorer. Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro can get hot from time to time, but haven’t proven they can sustain it through a seven-game series. Kyle Lowry’s lingering injuries make it unknown what kind of impact he will have. Their rotation really only consists of seven players.

Opportunities

Giannis Defending Butler

The Heat thrive when Butler gets himself going and creates good looks for his teammates. Miami took the first two games in the regular season, before Mike Budenholzer made a major adjustment and the Bucks took the second two. That adjustment? Putting Antetokounmpo on Butler. The Greek Freak has the size, strength, and athleticism to make Butler’s life a living hell.

Bucks Making Corner Threes

The Heat not only give up a lot of threes, but they give up a ton of corner threes as well—the most efficient shot in the game outside of a layup or dunk. Milwaukee was able to exploit that in the regular season and should do so again in the playoffs. Grayson Allen (47%), Jevon Carter (43%), Joe Ingles (42%), and Brook Lopez (41%) are all excellent at shooting those corner threes. It will be important to get them into the right spots.

Closing Lineups

Milwaukee can run out an entirely Butler-proof closing lineup that consists of Jrue Holiday-Wesley Matthews-Khris Middleton-Jae Crowder-Giannis Antetokounmpo. They could also substitute Lopez for Matthews if they so desire. Having this defensive versatility will be huge for close games down the stretch.

Threats

Miami’s Defense

The Heat didn’t win 44 games this season by accident. They are physical, mean, intense and are battle-tested. That all begins on the defensive end of the court, where they are extremely assignment-sound. They will do everything they can to bog down Milwaukee’s offense in the paint and make them live and die by the three. The Bucks can’t fall into that trap so easily.

Butler Hunting Fouls

In the opportunities section for the Bucks, I mentioned Antetokounmpo defending Butler. That’s great and all, but Butler is a fiend for drawing fouls. The last thing Milwaukee can afford is for their superstar to deal with foul trouble all series. Milwaukee must be extremely sound in their defensive fundamentals.

Heat Three-Point Shooting

Miami isn’t shy to fire away from downtown. Guys like Herro, Caleb Martin and Max Strus can get hot in a hurry. They were one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the NBA, but we’ve seen the Bucks get beat in the postseason by allowing too many open threes. Hopefully, their adjusted defensive schemes will help prevent that this time around.