Topline
Supreme Court justices signaled Wednesday they may be willing to strike down President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on many U.S. imports, potentially granting a reprieve to American consumers who are increasingly having to shoulder higher costs from the tariffs—though new duties could still be on the horizon even if the existing tariffs get struck down.
Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., and small business owners discuss tariffs outside the Supreme Court on September 18.
AFP via Getty Images
Key Facts
The Supreme Court heard oral arguments in two lawsuits over Trump’s tariffs Wednesday, and while it remains unclear how the court will rule, even conservative-leaning justices on the court expressed skepticism of the tariffs, raising the possibility the court could strike them down.
Trump has imposed wide-ranging tariffs of between 10% and 50% on most U.S. imports from nearly all countries, which have forced thousands of companies that import goods to pay substantially higher costs.
Companies are increasingly passing the cost of the tariffs on to the consumer, trade experts have told Forbes, as the tariffs stretch on and businesses are unable to keep absorbing the higher expenses.
An October KPMG survey of business leaders from companies with at least $1 billion in annual revenue found 42% of respondents are planning to increase prices by up to 5% over the next six months, with 29% planning price increases of between 6% and 15%.
Goldman Sachs analysts similarly reported in an October research note that consumers will absorb 55% of tariff costs by the end of 2025, with that number projected to go up to 70% by the end of next year if the tariffs remain in place.
The Supreme Court nullifying Trump’s tariffs could give consumers a reprieve from continually rising prices—but may not stop the cost increases entirely, as the Trump administration has already promised to impose new tariffs under other laws if these are struck down.
Crucial Quote
“Many companies are no longer able to absorb the cost, which means it is increasingly being passed along to the consumer in some manner,” Brian Riley, senior vice president of Customs House Brokerage at logistics company GEODIS, told Forbes, also labeling the tariffs “a major disruption in the supply chain.”
When Could The Supreme Court Rule?
The Supreme Court typically takes several months to decide cases after hearing oral arguments, and its ruling will come out by June 2026 at the latest, when the court’s term ends. Justices’ decision to take up the tariff case so quickly—taking up the case in September and scheduling arguments for November—signals they may be prepared to rule on a faster timeline, however. That means it’s not out of the question there could be a ruling by the end of the year, though any specific timing is still unknown.
Will New Tariffs Be Imposed?
Trump officials have already said they intend to impose new tariffs if the Supreme Court rules against them, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent telling Reuters prior to the oral arguments that importers and trading partners “should assume that they’re here to stay.” At issue in the Supreme Court case is whether the president can impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which allows presidents to impose economic sanctions during national emergencies. Trump has used the law to claim broad power to implement tariffs with virtually no restrictions, claiming they’re justified under the “emergency” of unfair trade practices against the U.S. If justices rule Trump can’t impose tariffs under IEEPA—as multiple lower courts already have—the Trump administration could instead reinstate tariffs under other federal statutes that more explicitly give tariff powers to the president, such as those that allow duties against particular sectors. Those laws carry more restrictions and take longer to implement, however, making it harder, but not impossible, for Trump to recreate his wide-ranging tariffs without IEEPA.
What Would New Tariffs Mean For Consumers?
Consumers could get at least a short-term reprieve from Trump’s sweeping tariffs if the Supreme Court strikes down the IEEPA tariffs, as any replacement tariffs that get instituted likely couldn’t take effect immediately. Since tariffs would have to be imposed on different sectors or trading partners individually—rather than the blanket tariff rates that Trump imposed through IEEPA—that also means that tariffs may only be imposed on certain goods but not others that were previously tariffed, or tariffs on certain products may take longer to implement. Andrew Siciliano, the global practice leader at KPMG’s Trade & Customs division, told Forbes that many consumer goods may get more of a “reprieve,” for instance, since the wide range of products makes it harder to apply specific tariffs on them.
Can Consumers Get Any Recourse For Price Increases?
Possibly. International trade attorney Robert Shapiro speculated to Forbes that consumers could have grounds to take legal action against companies that raised prices due to tariffs, if the policy is declared unlawful and those companies get the tariffs they already paid refunded. Consumers could file class-action lawsuits seeking to claw back the price increases they paid, Shapiro projected, as could businesses that saw the cost of their materials increase because of the new duties. “There were a lot of notices that went out saying, ‘Hey, we’re going to increase our prices to match the tariffs,’” Shapiro told Forbes, which could become evidence in future litigation or negotiations. Consumers who file class-action lawsuits could also bolster their case by seeking out any internal communications employees had about raising prices because of tariffs, Shapiro said. It remains to be seen how any of that litigation could play out, however, and any resolutions would likely be a long way off: Class-action lawsuits can take years to play out, and the initial refund process for tariffs may also be a lengthy one, as trade experts have told Forbes there’s still little clarity on how any refunds would be paid out.