Can support at 21 DMA hold? – OCBC

Euro (EUR) further slipped amid softer CPI prints out of Euro-area, Germany and Spain, OCBC’s FX analyst Christopher Wong notes.

EUR/USD to trade lower

“This adds to expectation that ECB may lower rate again at its upcoming meeting on 12 Sep. This week, focus is on mfg PMI (today), services PMI, PPI (Wed), retail sales (Thu) and GDP (Fri). ECBspeaks this week is largely quiet with Nagel tomorrow, Villeroy on Thu.”

“It is perhaps worth mentioning that ECBspeaks lately have not been outright dovish and officials seemed to posture for a more gradual pace when it comes to policy easing. That said, markets have priced in a 25bp cut at this meeting and about 37bp cut for remainder of the year (another 1.5 cut). Another series of underwhelming data print could move the needle for markets to price in a more dovish ECB and for the EURO to trade lower.”

“EUR was last at 1.1070 levels. Daily momentum turned mild bearish while RSI fell. Support at 1.1040 (21 DMA), 1.10, 1.0930 (61.8% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low). Resistance at 1.12 (recent high) and 1.1280 (2023 high).”

(This story was corrected on September 2 at 10:32 GMT to say “OCBC’s FX analyst Christopher Wong notes” instead of “ING’s FX strategist Chris Turner notes”.)