Can South America Topple Europe At The 2022 World Cup?

A World Cup often shapes up as a battle between Europe and South America, but it has been two decades since the South Americans last won the title when Ronaldo’s goals propelled Brazil to a fifth world title in the heat and humidity of the Far East after a long and draining season. In Qatar, conditions will be different: top-fit players should encounter a mild climate when the tournament kicks off in November, the first winter World Cup ever.

On the evidence of the qualifiers and recent friendlies, Brazil and Argentina should be strong contenders in Doha. At the last World Cup, all four semi-finalists were European, leaving the impression that the rest of the world can no longer compete with the way Europe has industrialized talent production. The World Cup then risks the danger of becoming a European monopoly.

Much has changed however since Russia where Argentina was a colossal mess under Jorge Sampaoli. They have not lost since the 2019 Copa America and their 3-0 win against Italy in the Finalissima was a demonstration of how far the Argentineans have come. Messi then scored five against lowly Estonia as to emphasize the point, but, in many ways, Argentina is no longer dependent on him. He remains the lynchpin of the side – that’s inevitable for a player of his quality – but for the first time a proper team has been built around him. Giovani Lo Celso and Rodrigo De Paul service Messi in areas where he can prove dangerous. Argentina’s plan is no longer to simply pass the ball to Messi and see what happens.

Coach Lionel Scaloni then has solved a puzzle that led to the downfall of so many of his predecessors. There is concern at the back with veteran defender Nicolas Otamendi well past his best, but Argentina’s progress should be feted. Argentina should have no problem navigating Group C with Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Poland and could meet France again in the round of sixteen, a game Messi and co won’t fear this time.

Brazil’s evolution has been very similar. Dependence on Neymar has steadily diminished with the emergence of Vinicius Junior. The Champions League winner featured an hour against Japan and offers a great threat from the wing together with Raphinha on the right. Coach Tite can greatly vary his attack, playing Lucas Paqueta wide as well.

At the back, Casemiro and Fred must plug the holes, but can veterans Daniel Alves and Thiago Silva still be trusted to deal with the intensity of a World Cup? In the first friendly, the South Koreans tried to exploit the space in behind Alves but had too little quality and ingenuity to do so. Danilo is Alves’ replacement but doesn’t offer the same finesse going forward. In general, Brazil however rarely concede a goal, the qualifiers which turned into another victory parade a case in point.

In Doha, the Brazilians could meet Belgium again in the quarterfinals. Four years ago, Thibaut Courtois prevented Neymar from equalizing and taking the game into extra-time. At 30, Neymar knows that this will be his last World Cup and a chance at redemption for a career that has often been viewed as underwhelming. An Argentinean triumph would be the coronation of Messi’s storied career. After all, two decades after Yokohama, a South American victory is due. Europe, be warned.