Can Keanu Reeves’ ‘John Wick 4’ Finally Break Out Overseas?

Lionsgate dropped their first teaser to Chad Stahelski’s John Wick: Chapter 4 last night. Pardon my tardiness. My wife is out of town with the oldest. My younger kids tend to think in terms of “making dinner > writing about a trailer.” Anyway, this is (to my recollection) the same minute-long clip we got at CinemaCon in late April. It packs many “Yes, we have more cards up our sleeve” images in 60 seconds, including a showcase beat of Donnie Yen engaging in a sword-and-gun fight with our protagonist. Two striking leading men pushing 60 who barely look a day over 35 are still showing us how it’s done. Anyway, the film has been slated for March 23, 2023, amid an unusually crowded March (see also: Creed III, Dungeons and Dragons, Disney’s Haunted Mansion, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom and Scream 6).

All four John Wick films have opened/will open in wildly various parts of the calendar. John Wick debuted in late October of 2014 with a surprisingly strong $14 million debut before earning $43 million domestic and $88 million worldwide on a $30 million budget. John Wick: Chapter 2 was a classic breakout sequel, opening amid a crowded February in 2017 (on the same weekend as The LEGO Batman Movie and Fifty Shades Darker) with $30 million before legging out to $92 million domestic and $172 million worldwide on a $40 million budget. John Wick: Chapter 3 got tossed in the heart of summer, opening in a prime pre-Memorial Day weekend slot with a bonkers $56 million. It also kept chugging to $171 million domestic and $323 million worldwide on a $75 million budget. The upward trajectory of this franchise has been downright miraculous.

Captain America: Civil War ($409 million domestic and $1.155 billion worldwide) pitted Captain America against Iron Man, introduced Spider-Man and Black Panther and featured most of the Avengers beating the hell out of each other. It still “only” rose 58% domestic and 62% worldwide from The Winter Soldier ($259 million/$714 million). John Wick: Chapter 3, obviously working with smaller grosses, jumped 86% domestic and 87% worldwide without a penny from China. Back in 2019, I wondered aloud whether John Wick: Chapter 4, which in a non-Covid world would have opened in the same mid-May slot in 2021, might take a massive overseas upswing as we saw with Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol, Jason Bourne and Fast & Furious (all “part four” in their respective character-specific franchises) while keeping domestic strength. I’m honestly not sure if the last two years have made that more or less likely.

It’ll have been four years since John Wick 3. The fourth film getting released in China is even more of a pipedream. March is ridiculously crowded as at least three of these biggies (John Wick 4, Aquaman 2 and Creed 3) were supposed to open elsewhere in 2022. If any Hollywood flick crushes it in China next March, it’ll be the sequel to the $298 million-grossing Aquaman. Conversely, absence may make the heart grow fonder, and solid earnings for Top Gun: Maverick, Uncharted and (presumably) Nope implies that audiences still want more than just Marvel/DC flicks and Illumination toons. Presuming John Wick 4 delivers the goods, it makes sense that those who loved the first three films would still show up with bells on for the fourth installment. This R-rated, original, star+character-specific franchise has been a non-stop miracle.