Calling It Quits, Ulta Beauty And Target’s Partnership Unravels

Ulta Beauty and Target just announced they won’t renew their five-year partnership after reaching 600 Ulta-Target shop-in-shops, falling short of their original goal of 800 locations. With the partnership ending in August 2026, Target’s got a year to prepare to dismantle the Ulta in-store concessions, which can span up to 1,000 square feet, and repurpose the space.

In the announcement, the companies mutually congratulated themselves on revolutionizing how people experience beauty and their shared success. But now they’ve decided to go it alone, as they jointly assured shoppers, “Both companies remain committed to delivering a seamless shopping experience and product availability through the end of the partnership, as well as continuing to support their teams and partners during the transition.”

Looking ahead, the breakup is likely to be a painful blow to the already embattled Target, facing declining sales, a shortfall in foot traffic and national boycotts. For Ulta, the exit should be of little consequence, even enhancing its reputation. As the saying goes, nobody wants to sit at the reject table.

“From Ulta’s perspective, their reputation is only as good as the company you keep,” shared Stephen Hahn, chief reputation and strategy officer at corporate reputation management firm RepTrak.

“Reputation can transmute through association,” as he notes Target’s reputation has fallen of late. “It’s highly likely that Target’s recent reputational challenges would have been an important factor in Ulta’s decision-making.”

Target’s Troubles Mount

Target has experienced ten consecutive quarters of flat or declining sales, most recently reporting net sales fell 2.8% with a 3.8% drop in comparable sales in the first quarter 2025. Its comp sales were bolstered by 4.7% increase in online sales against a dramatic 5.7% decline in store sales. Target derives some 80% of sales in its nearly 2,000 stores.

Shoppers are increasingly turning away from Target. Placer.ai reports that foot traffic to Target stores has dropped in the first and second quarters this year – 4% and 3% respectively – following calls to boycott Target erupted earlier this year after it ended its DEI program.

But even before that, foot traffic was waning, declining 2% in the first quarter and 1% in the fourth quarter of 2024.

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Back in 2021, when Target invited Ulta into its stores, it was on a high. Net revenues exploded from $78.1 billion in 2019 to $106 billion in 2021 as it rode out the pandemic as an “essential retailer” – Ulta was not so lucky.

Target’s revenues continued to climb in 2022, reaching $109.1 billion, then tumbled to $107.4 billion in 2023 and fell to $106.6 billion in 2024. Notably, in 2024, beauty was the only product category that posted a gain, rising 5% from $12.5 billion previous year to $13.2 billion.

At the partnership signing, Ulta was bringing to Target a specialized assortment of prestige beauty brands that would contribute to Target’s more upscale “Tarzhay” image. But that image has become tarnished.

Commenting on a recent family shopping trip to Target, GlobalData’s managing director and retail analyst Neil Saunders said in a Linkedin post, “What greeted us was grottiness: a messy, sad-looking store that was both hard and unpleasant to shop. It felt less like Tar-zhay and more like a tired, tatty thrift-store.”

And he opined that similar “grottiness” spilled over into the Ulta shop-in-shops. “The Ulta areas in Target have become increasingly messy, they suffer from inadequate staffing, and are often cordoned off from the rest of the store by retractable belt barriers. Persistent low stock levels have further diminished the experience.”

Losing Ulta’s partnership, he believes, “will be widely viewed as yet another stumble in Target’s recent run of setbacks.”

Perhaps the greatest drag on Target’s future performance – Target is guiding on a low single-digit decline in sales this year – is that some 40% of Target employees have lost confidence in the company, according to an in-house survey of 260,000 employees, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. A company spokesperson admitted, “Our team is not happy with the current performance,” but added the survey results show that Target employees want the company to succeed.

A lot is riding on who replaces CEO Brian Cornell who is expected to step down this year, though no date has been set. While the WSJ reports that current COO Michael Fiddlke is a frontrunner for the top job, a survey conducted by Mizuho Securities among some 50 medium and large investors found an overwhelming 96% favor an external candidate.

All To Target

In an investor’s note, TD Cowen reports that Target recognizes most of the resulting revenue from the Ulta partnership. Ulta receives a royalty fee for sales generated in Target stores or online, which Cowen estimates ranges between 10% and 15%.

For example, Cowen estimates 100 Ulta shop-in-shops in the 1,000 square foot range could generate $75 million in total, with Target taking between $64 and $68 million and Ulta earning the remaining $7 million to $11 million.-

Ulta doesn’t report Target royalties separately from other royalty revenues from credit card products and other sources, but total royalties last year totaled $23.7 million, down from $28.8 million in 2023. Overall, Cowen figures Ulta to experience only a 1% or less impact on revenues by ending the partnership.

Ulta To Move Forward Without Distraction

Now freed from distractions in its Target venture, Ulta can get back to work on more pressing priorities, as its comp sales growth has averaged just 1% over the last four quarters while competition from Sephora, Amazon and indie brands on TikTok are pressing in.

As Cowen said Ulta has “bigger fish to fry.” For example, it just acquired British retailer Space NK with its 83 stores in the U.K. and Ireland. Space NK shares many of Ulta’s strengths in beauty discovery and nurturing emerging brands. Further international expansion is also ahead as it has joint venture with Grupo Axo in Mexico and a licensing agreement with Alshaya Group in the Middle East.

Newly appointed Ulta CEO Kecia Steelman, who was promoted from president and COO on Jan. 6, is out to make her mark on Ulta, after net sales inched forward only 0.8% to $11.3 billion in 2024, up from $11.2 billion in 2023.

In her irst CEO letter introducing the company’s 2024 annual report covering the company’s 58,000 employees and 1,400 U.S. stores, she wrote:

“As I step into the CEO role, I am focused on bringing simplification and prioritization to our efforts. As we look to fiscal 2025 and beyond, we have aligned our plan, Ulta Beauty Unleashed, around three main priorities: first, drive core business growth; second, scale new, accretive businesses; and third, realign our foundation for the future.”

Clearly, continuing the Target partnership would have increased complexity and distracted her and her management team from Ulta’s core business and much more promising accretive opportunities. Target proved not to be aligned with the future of Ulta’s business.