CAD trades very close to fair value estimate – Scotiabank

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed on the session. Mildly positive risk appetite is a modest plus for the CAD as are decent gains on the session for crude oil (up 1%), Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

CAD holds range

“The CAD remains more beholden to yield differentials and the USD’s still significant interest rate premium along the curve—a situation that is unlikely to change in the short run. The tariff threat dangling over the CAD adds to downside risks for the CAD in the coming months. Spot fair value is estimated at 1.4062 currently—suggesting the CAD is right about where it should be.”

“Spot is about midway between recent price extremes (1.3930/1.4180) and looks relatively flat on the short-term chart. Trend momentum signals continue to favour USD appreciation which means the USD should remain well-supported on dips for now. Support is 1.3990/00 and 1.3930/50. Resistance is 1.4090/00 and 1.4175/80.”