Bulls take a breather near 1.3800 ahead of BoC rate decision

USD/CAD ticks higher amid an extension of the recent USD rally to a nearly three-month top.
Bets for a larger BoC rate cut, softer Oil prices undermine the Loonie and also lend support.
The technical setup favors bullish traders and supports prospects for further near-term gains.

The USD/CAD pair attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day’s modest slide and sticks to its positive bias around the 1.3825 region through the first half of the European session on Wednesday. Spot prices remain within the striking distance of the highest level since August 6 touched earlier this week as traders keenly await the Bank of Canada (BoC) policy decision before positioning for the next leg of a directional move.

Heading into the key central bank event risk, the recent US Dollar (USD) upswing to its highest level since early August, led by bets for a less aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), continues to act as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. Apart from this, a downtick in Crude Oil prices is seen undermining the commodity-linked Loonie and offering additional support to the currency pair amid expectations for a larger BoC rate cut later today.

From a technical perspective, this week’s breakout and a daily close above the 1.3800 mark could be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. This, along with the fact that oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair is to the upside. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a move beyond the monthly high, around the 1.3850 area, before positioning for further gains.

The subsequent move-up has the potential to lift spot prices beyond the 1.3875 intermediate hurdle, towards reclaiming the 1.3900 mark. The USD/CAD pair could eventually aim to challenge its highest level since October 2022, around the 1.3945 region touched last month.

On the flip side, the 1.3800 round figure could offer some support ahead of last week’s swing low, around the 1.3750-1.3745 area. A convincing break below might prompt technical selling and drag the USD/CAD pair further below the 1.3700 mark, towards testing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), near the 1.3665 region. This is followed by the 200-day SMA, around the 1.3625 zone, which if broken might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders.

USD/CAD daily chart

Economic Indicator

BoC Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoC believes inflation will be above target (hawkish), it will raise interest rates in order to bring it down. This is bullish for the CAD since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. Likewise, if the BoC sees inflation falling below target (dovish) it will lower interest rates in order to give the Canadian economy a boost in the hope inflation will rise back up. This is bearish for CAD since it detracts from foreign capital flowing into the country.