Bulls hold territory ahead of BoJ decision, closes a winning week

• The USD/JPY pair sees mild gains, settling at 148.25.
• No policy changes are expected at next week’s BoJ meeting; guidance will be looked upon.
• Despite bearish undertones in the four-hour-chart outlook, the pair’s position above the 20,100,200-day SMAs indicates a broader bullish control.

On Friday’s session, the USD/JPY was observed to be mildly gaining, currently trading at 148.25, and will close a 2% winning week. Dominating the daily chart, bullish sentiments prevail, with the bulls firmly holding their stance but seem to be taking a breather. Next week, the bulls might get further momentum if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) does not give additional clues on its monetary policy plans.

On the USD side, it remains resilient on the back of the US yields recovering and positive University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment data, which gave the Greenback an additional boost. Next week, markets will eye December’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures from December, the Federal Reserve (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation to continue placing their bets on the next decision. The dovish expectations eased somewhat this week but are still high, and according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of cuts in March and May stand at around 50% and 45%, respectively.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

From a daily standpoint, the technical indicators reflect bullish strength, maintaining a firm position, but buyers are running out of steam. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) demonstrates a slight positive tilt within the positive region, while flat green bars of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) further confirm a positive outlook but with a slight deceleration. Moreover, the placement of the pair distinctly above the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) indicates that the buying momentum overpowers any bearish undertones, giving the bulls an overall command.

USD/JPY daily chart