Broadway Attendance Plummets As Theaters Drop Vaccine Mandate

Is Broadway back? Depends on who you ask.

With 36 shows up and running, the industry’s roster has fully recovered to pre-Covid size. And anyone working on established hits like Hamilton or starry revivals like Daniel Craig’s Macbeth will likely say business is booming. (Craig’s show, despite savage reviews, is grossing $150,000 per night.)

Others, especially those attempting to launch new ventures, might paint a different picture.

“We’re miserable,” said one theater industry veteran at the recent opening night of a new musical. “Everyone’s miserable. We’re all exhausted and miserable. I don’t know what else to say.”

The sentiment comes at the end of a crushing spring schedule, itself following a brutal winter. Seventeen new shows opened over the last five weeks, many having delayed to avoid the first Omicron wave, only to land in the middle of another one. The new subvariant has infected dozens of actors, resulting in so many cancellations that the Tony Awards extended their eligibility window so nominators could see everything. However, the announcement came as a surprise to many producers who were not consulted beforehand, according to multiple production sources. The result was a chaotic scramble to reschedule tickets and a bitter aftertaste for those who had rushed to meet the original deadline.

Also raising some hackles is the decision to drop a vaccination requirement for audiences. Given the prevalence of breakthrough infections, the move was seen as inevitable by many in the industry, who believe it won’t significantly affect the health of audiences or employees. But it still adds to the surreality of rushing back to “normal,” as Covid hospitalizations continue to rise nationwide. (Actors and staff are still required to be vaccinated, and audiences must wear masks at least through the end of May.)

So. Industry enthusiasm is generally low, even with three dozen marquees lit. But what about the audience? How are shows selling? Are fans retuning in big enough droves to keep them all afloat?

Short answer: No.

Slightly longer answer: Nooooooo. The market is oversaturated, and the brunt of loss is falling on brand new companies attempting to launch.

Here’s the hard data: Broadway grosses fell 15% to $29 million last week, with attendance plummeting as well, leaving only three-quarters of all seats occupied. The same week in 2019, with the same number of shows, was 90% full and posted $38.4 million in sales, adjusting for inflation.

For an industry that once contributed $15 billion in economic impact to New York, Broadway has always been risky, and a gap between haves and have-nots is par for the course. The difference now is the magnitude of that gap.

Let’s look at ticket prices as a proxy for audience demand. Of 36 shows, 19 were selling their average seat for at least $100. That’s solid, even accounting for inflation. However, only three of those are new ventures; the rest are starry revivals and established hits from pre-pandemic times. And the three newbies all had built-in fanbases to help them launch: Mr. Saturday Night stars Billy Crystal, MJ is about Michael Jackson, and Six was an international hit before it landed in America.

All the other new plays and musicals are selling for less. To be fair, four opened just last week, including Pulitzer winner A Strange Loop, which is likeliest to find long legs. But the further down the price index you go, the grimmer it gets. And attendance correlates, with the cheapest shows filling fewer seats.

It’s a crushing spiral, but not a surprising one. For months, the disparity between old and new companies has been clear, structural inequities insulating hits while leaving fresh talent out in the cold. Those have compounded with multiple variant waves, resulting in an inhospitable market for many. Broadway went from 19 shows to 36 in just over a month, its fastest expansion in decades. And now it’s collapsing, again.

Two have already announced premature closings. The Little Prince was always a long shot after its awful reviews, but for colored girls who have considered suicide/when the rainbow is enuf received glowing notices when it opened just two weeks ago. It now has less than three weeks remaining. (Go see it. It is incredible.)

But recent numbers show that long-running warhorses aren’t immune, either. Nearly every show saw sales drop last week, some alarming in their magnitude. Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, which was rewritten during the lockdown to cut expenses, fell by almost $600,000. Hamilton failed to sell out its house for the first time in months, with 10% of its seats left empty. Dear Evan Hansen appears mortally wounded: its gross crashed to an all-time low of $474,000.

Notable, too, is the decline from pre-pandemic benchmarks. Adjusting for inflation, Disney’s twin hits The Lion King and Aladdin were down $860,000 and $670,000 from the same week in 2019; Come From Away was down $630,000; Phantom of the Opera down $610,000. Hamilton was off by a whopping $1.1 million, although a production source noted that prices have been kept below market value since reopening, so as not to alienate new fans who watched it on Disney+ during the lockdown.

Beyond the glut of content, other factors are squeezing the Main Stem. Tourism is still recovering, especially international travel. NYC & Company, the city’s marketing organization, projects 56.4 million visitors to the city this year, compared to 66 million in 2019. Considering that two out of every three Broadway buyers is from out of town, that’s a serious divot in the cashbox.

Public safety concerns may also be cooling interest. The recent spate of high-profile shootings, stabbings, and beatings, especially on public transit, have folks on edge. They’re prominent enough that critics are making note of the hazards in otherwise unrelated reviews.

The coming weeks will inflict serious whiplash on the Great White Way. The Tony Awards are slated for June 12, representing the industry’s best chance to reestablish itself in the public eye. But in the meantime a rapid shrinking will occur, with many premature closing notices, especially once nominees are announced on May 9. While established hits will weather the moment as they’ve been doing all along, that’s cold comfort to the thousands of people responsible for launching new ventures.

And it raises a larger, long-term concern: Given the stacked deck, how much rising talent will the industry lose in the aftermath?