Braves, Mets, Phillies Again Set To Duke It Out In Competitive NL East

For the rest of March, I’ll be taking a look at the Opening Day true-talent rankings of the 30 MLB clubs on a division-by-division basis. While the rankings are based on actual 2022 batted-ball data, off-season player movement and potential impact of 2023 rookies will be addressed. Yesterday, we started it off with the AL East; today, we move to the NL East.

1 – Atlanta Braves – “Tru” Talent Record = 104-58 = Offensive Rating = 116.6 (1st), Pitching Rating = 88.3 (4th), Defensive Rating = 98.5 (11th); IN: C Sean Murphy; OUT: RHP Jake Odorizzi, C William Contreras, RHP Kenley Jansen, SS Dansby Swanson, LF Robbie Grossman

It was sort of a consolidation offseason for the Braves, moving on from the players above while dealing much of their prospect depth for a single star player, A’s catcher Sean Murphy. The club is counting on a full return to health of young, signed-for-the-long-haul stars Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies, a solid encore performance from Rookie of the Year Michael Harris and MLB-readiness from SS Vaughn Grissom. This club’s strength remains their offense, and while it should remain forceful, there are some high-variance pieces in place.

This bunch is all about winning now. Their rotation top four of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton could be the game’s best, and the oft-injured Mike Soroka could also be of help. Bullpen depth may be of some concern compared to prior years, though Raisel Iglesias should be a worthy replacement for Jansen.

One potential issue here – the minor league cupboard is as bare as it’s been in recent memory. The Plan B’s and C’s aren’t attractive this time around. LHP Jared Shuster lacks impact stuff, but has an advanced feel to pitch. The Braves’ player development machine has had success with his prototype, though at times it takes a while for everything to click.

2 – New York Mets – “Tru” Talent Record = 95-67 – Offensive Rating = 106.2 (9th), Pitching Rating = 89.2 (5th), Defensive Rating = 100.2 (18th) – IN: RHP Justin Verlander, RHP Kodai Senga, LHP Jose Quintana, C Omar Narvaez, LHP Brooks Raley, LF Tommy Pham; OUT: RHP Jacon deGrom, RHP Chris Bassitt, RHP Taijuan Walker, RHP Trevor May, RHP Seth Lugo, RHP Trevor Williams, C James McCann, LF Dominic Smith

Are we really sure this is going to be a great team? Not signing Carlos Correa after all gives them an entirely different look than anticipated. On the pitching side, their upside remains substantial, though the cast of characters has changed greatly. Verlander is great but has to decline someday, Senga’s adjustment to a new culture and level of competition carries some risk, and Quintana has been sidelined by a rib injury this week. The bullpen also looks a bit light behind closer Edwin Diaz for a team with such a high payroll.

But my biggest concerns are on the run-scoring front. The production of Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso can pretty much be penciled in, but the quantity of Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte and the quality of most of the rest of their lineup is of some concern. Jeff McNeil is a nice player, but he’s not your typical batting title champ – his batted ball data just doesn’t support it. Eduardo Escobar is a big step down from Correa, Mark Canha is a fourth OF on a great team, and a team with lofty aspirations shouldn’t be riding Omar Narvaez behind the plate.

The farm system, which is top heavy and strongly tilted to the position player side, may have to be relied upon extensively. C Francisco Alvarez should shove aside Narvaez relatively quickly and provide power, and and 3Bs Brett Baty and Mark Vientos both are close to MLB ready and offer power potential and at least playable hot corner defense. One could move to LF and compete for playing time there. 2023 could turn to be a transition year for both New York clubs, which I’m sure isn’t exactly what their fans want to hear.

3 – Philadelphia Phillies – “Tru” Talent Record = 89-73 – Offensive Rating = 109.1 (7th), Pitching Rating = 94.1 (9th), Defensive Rating = 105.3 (27th) – IN: SS Trea Turner, RHP Taijuan Walker, RHP Craig Kimbrel, LHP Gregory Soto, LHP Matt Strahm, UT Josh Harrison; OUT: 3B Jean Segura, RHP Kyle Gibson, RHP Zach Eflin, RHP David Robertson, RHP Noah Syndergaard, UT Matt Vierling, UT NIck Maton

Last fall was a wild, exhilarating ride for the Phillies and their fans, almost culminating in a World Series title. Before the Delaware Valley could come down from their collective high. the club went out and signed arguably the best player on the free agent market, SS Trea Turner. If there was any prior doubt, that and the almost singular focus on bolstering the team’s longtime Achilles’ heel bullpen made clear their win-now focus.

Problem is, there is no such thing as a sure-thing relief pitcher, at least outside of Edwin Diaz, Emmanuel Clase and maybe a couple others. The Phils also extended incumbent pen arms Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez, increasing their investment in the back end. I expect their pen to be better compensated, but not necessarily much better.

Ditto their rotation – I’ll take the departed Zach Eflin over Taijuan Walker any day, though the latter might be a little more certain to take the ball every fifth day for six months. I also think the Phils will miss Vierling and Maton a little more than one would think – they were Plan B or C at a bunch of positions. As for Turner, he’ll be great in the short-to-intermediate term, which is really all an article like this can focus upon.

The farm is top heavy, and concern about mega-prospect RHP Andrew Painter is front page stuff in Philly right now. He’s got young Dwight Gooden upside, but the delay in info on his status is concerning. Mick Abel and Griff McGarry are also interesting starter prospects, but they’re not Painter. On the position player side, I find 2B Hao-Yu Lee to be most interesting. He’s got a feel to hit beyond his years.

4 – Miami Marlins – “Tru” Talent Record = 71-91 – Offensive Rating = 92.5 (23rd), Pitching Rating = 99.1 (15th), Defensive Rating = 105.4 (28th); IN: 1B Luis Arraez, 3B Jean Segura, RHP Johnny Cueto, LHP A.J. Puk, RHP Matt Barnes; OUT: RHP Pablo Lopez, SS Miguel Rojas, CF Adam Duvall, 3B Brian Anderson, CF JJ Bleday, LHP Richard Bleier

There are two teams in baseball that I find myself having difficulty wrapping my head around each and every season – the Colorado Rockies and the Miami Marlins. The former has no excuse not being able to build a good offensive club in its home park, but can’t do it, and the latter has no excuse not being able to build a good run prevention club in its home park, but can’t do it. That criticism aside, I do believe the Marlins will figure it out before the Cubs.

Obviously, reigning Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara is building block #1. And though Lopez is gone like Zac Gallen was before him, onetime sure thing Sixto Sanchez is little more than a lottery ticket at this point, and Trevor Rogers took a big step backward last season, there are still potential top performers lurking. Eury Perez is still a teenager, and is right there in the conversation with Andrew Painter and Grayson Rodriguez in best pitching prospect in baseball discussions. Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo retain high upsides, while Cueto is merely a placeholder at this stage of his career.

Still not sure how this team is going to score runs. Segura and Arraez aren’t exactly big boppers – it will take a lot of theit singles to manufacture enough runs for this team to contend. They desperately need Jazz Chisholm to take to his new position in center, stay healthy and become an offensive powerhouse. That’s asking an awful lot.

It doesn’t help that most of the near-term help on the farm is on the pitching side, with righty Max Meyer and lefty Dax Fulton slotting in behind Perez in the pecking order,

5 – Washington Nationals – “Tru” Talent Record = 64-98 – Offensive Rating = 94.8 (19th), Pitching Rating = 116.9 (29th), Defensive Rating = 100.3 (19th); IN: 3B Jeimer Candelario, 1B Dominic Smith, RHP Trevor Williams; OUT: DH Nelson Cruz, CF Michael A. Taylor

This is about the closest thing to a modern day tank job going on in this sport, and we’re right at or just past the bottom of the thrill ride. The club made some deadline deals to get some marquee prospect talent on board, and now they just need to see if SS CJ Abrams and outfielders Robert Hassell III and James Wood can live up to the hype. Though he was only 21, Abrams’ utter lack of plate discipline was a bit scary last season, and gives me some pause. Hassell and Wood have comparable pedigrees, with the former an accomplished hit-before-power craftsman and the latter an explosive 6’7”, 240, athlete who could grow into some serious power. The Nats desperately need to hit on these guys to justify the trade of prime Juan Soto.

Most of their 2023 additions are worthy reclamation projects with at least some potential to reclaim their former shine. Just a couple years back few could have seen projected starters Candelario and Smith become freely available, and Williams looked quite good in a more limited role with the Mets last season.

Obviously, Hassell and Wood are the names to watch on the farm, but righty Cade Cavalli and lefty Mackenzie Gore are expected to break camp in the starting rotation. They and fellow youngster Josiah Gray might still have some lumps to take, but the Nats are in a position to be patient.

One final Nat note – I’m still not giving up on 2B Luis Garcia, another young (turns 23 in May) out-maker with pop and exciting raw tools. He just might be the guy who finds another gear after getting 1000 developmental MLB at bats.

Next week, the two central divisions.