Brandon Aiyuk Could Be Poised For Year 3 Breakout

While so much of the focus for the San Francisco 49ers this offseason has been on Deebo Samuel, there is a teammate in the wide receiver room worthy of similarly significant attention as he enters year three of his NFL career.

The 49ers traded up in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft for Brandon Aiyuk and, two years into his time in the pros, some may be questioning whether that move was a mistake.

To pose such questions about Aiyuk would be to make a harsh assessment of the start of his NFL career. Aiyuk may not have reached the heights of fellow first-round receiver Justin Jefferson in terms of pure production, yet he has unquestionably been a key contributor for the Niners and goes into year three with an opportunity for a breakout season.

San Francisco’s new wide receivers coach Leonard Hankerson seemingly believes as such, telling Matt Barrows of The Athletic that Aiyuk only really started to get to grips with Kyle Shanahan’s system during the second half of the 2021 season.

“Now it’s about how he can take that next step to be the best,” Hankerson said.

The numbers back up Hankerson’s comments about Aiyuk’s performance down the stretch run. As the Niners got hot to reach the postseason as a six seed, he finished with at least 85 yards in five of the last 10 games. Aiyuk scored a touchdown in two of the games in which he failed to do so, including the game-winner in overtime against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14.

As his receivers coach indicated, the pressure is on Aiyuk to build on the level of performance he displayed in the second half of the year and in the postseason for the entirety of 2022.

Potentially helping him do that is the impending switch to Trey Lance as starting quarterback. The Niners offense likely will change at least somewhat as they pivot from Jimmy Garoppolo—a quarterback who does his best work on short and intermediate throws—to an aggressive signal-caller with arm to make downfield throws with greater consistency.

Samuel led the Niners and was third in the NFL with 23 receptions of 20 yards or more in 2021. The nature of his game and how the Niners used him, however, meant that many of those receptions came on plays where he created yards after the catch. Samuel’s 10.4 yards after catch per reception were a league-high, per the NFL’s NextGen Stats.

Aiyuk had an impressive 16 such catches and, while he too excels with the ball in his hands—Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle each averaged 6.7 yards after catch per reception in 2021—no San Francisco receiver had a higher average depth of target than Aiyuk’s 9.8.

Though the 49ers picked speedster Danny Gray in the third round of this year’s draft, Aiyuk could well emerge as Lance’s best downfield option among their established pass-catchers.

Indeed, the 49ers’ faith in his route-running ability may soon pay greater dividends. His 2021 average separation of 2.9 yards—per NextGen Stats—was comparable to Davante Adams (2.9) and Jefferson (3), two of the league’s premier route-runners.

It trailed both Kittle (3.1) and Samuel (3.3), yet they were each afforded more cushion than Aiyuk. On average, Aiyuk was given 5.5 yards of cushion compared to 5.8 for Kittle and 6.7 for Samuel.

The importance of both Samuel—whom the 49ers remain committed to keeping despite his trade request—and Kittle to the offense, will likely keep Aiyuk as the third option in the passing game.

His place in the pecking order undoubtedly impacts the potential for an Aiyuk breakout season but, given his mastery of the offense, his separation skills, recent history of making plays downfield and his ability to create after the catch, there is arguably no receiver better suited to the challenge of excelling in a Shanahan scheme tailored to the strengths of Lance.

Defenses will remain focused on Samuel, Kittle and the threat of a run game likely to only grow more diverse with Lance under center. However, 2022 could be a year in which Aiyuk emphatically punishes them for not paying proper attention to his substantial gifts.