Bounce at 21.315 POC sets stage for 21.557 break

Nasdaq-100 futures (NQM2025) – Combined H4 and 5-min trading playbook

Tuesday, May 20 – Including Monday Recap & Targets Achieved.

1. Monday recap and achieved targets

• H4 Bounce Zone (21,315–21,371 POC/VWAP): Held with two rejections below, confirming value support.

• First Target (21,434): Tested the prior swing high and held as new intra-day support.

• Second Target (21,497): Reached the 38.2% fib of the May 14–16 mini-swing before stalling midday.

• Close: Consolidated between 21,450–21,480 into the NY cut, setting up Tuesday’s play.

2. H4 framework – Medium-term direction

Major Resistance 21,557 – Feb ’25 support now VAH; must clear and hold.

Bullish Threshold 21,616 – 4H close above for next leg up.

Upside Sequence 21,652 → 21,682 → 21,711 → 21,753 → 21,806 – Fib & swing pivots.

Immediate Support –  21,463 H4 23.6% retrace of May 12–16 rally.

Secondary Support – 21,405 H4 38.2% retrace & Monday’s low.

POC / Value Control ~21,357 High-volume node – daily pivot.

VWAP (H4 Band Mid) ~21,154 50-period H4 VWAP acting as dynamic anchor.

H4 VAL – 21,014 Value-Area Low – major demand zone.

H4 bullish setup

• Trigger: 4-hour close above 21,557–21,616.

• Entry: Long on a retest of 21,557 as new support or clean break above 21,616.

• Targets: 21,652 → 21,682 → 21,711 → 21,753 → 21,806.

• Stop: Below 21,463.

H4 bearish setup

• Trigger: 4-hour break below 21,405 or rejection back under 21,557.

• Entry: Short on close beneath 21,405 or failure at 21,557.

• Targets: 21,357 → 21,314 → 21,154 → 21,014.

• Stop: Above 21,557.

H4 Bias: Neutral-to-bullish above 21,405; neutral-to-bearish under 21,616.

3. Intraday (5-Min) plan – Tuesday session

Immediate Resistance 21,480–21,497 – Monday’s high & 38.2% fib.

21,552 fib of May 14 swing & VAH line.

Immediate Support 21,434 – Monday’s swing high now support.

21,371 Daily POC mid-band & VWAP control point.

21,315 POC low & key micro-value anchor.

21,169 VWAP mid-line (green).

Bullish intraday scenarios

1. Hold & Bounce 21,371–21,315

   • Entry: Long on 5-min rejection of this zone with close back above 21,371.

   • Targets: 21,434 → 21,497 → 21,552.

   • Stop: Below 21,300.

2. Break & Reclaim 21,497–21,552 Band

   • Entry: Long on 5-min close above 21,497.

   • Targets: 21,552 → 21,631 → 21,806 (H4 target).

   • Stop: 21,450.

Bearish Intraday Scenarios

1. Fail at 21,480–21,497

   • Entry: Short on reversal candle into the resistance band.

   • Targets: 21,434 → 21,371 → 21,315.

   • Stop: Above 21,520.

2. Break Below 21,315 (POC/VWAP)

   • Entry: Short on 5-min close beneath POC.

   • Targets: 21,169 → 21,154 → 21,014.

   • Stop: Above 21,350.

4. Execution and risk management

• Position Sizing: Risk ≤1% of account per trade.

• Volume Confirmation: Favour entries aligned with volume spikes at key pivots.

• Alerts: Set alarms at 21,315 / 21,371 / 21,434 / 21,497 / 21,557.

• Context Switch: If price breaches 21,806 (H4) or drops below 21,014 (H4 VAL), adjust to a broader swing-bias.

Remain patient—let price confirm key pivots before pulling the trigger. Always manage risk with a defined stop-loss and position sizing. This is not financial advice. Good luck!