BofA Strategists See U.S. Equity Outflows Just Getting Started

(Bloomberg) — Massive outflows from U.S. equity funds are just getting started as the Federal Reserve ramps up its hawkish rhetoric, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists.

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In the week through April 20, investors pulled $19.6 billion from U.S. large caps, the largest exit since February 2018, the strategists wrote in a note dated Thursday, citing EPFR Global data. The outflow from broader U.S. equity funds was the biggest since December.

“Everyone bearish, but redemptions just starting,” said BofA strategists led by Michael Hartnett, adding that the environment of “extreme inflation” and rates shock is just setting in, as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy. “75 basis points is the new 25 basis points,” Hartnett said, referring to the scope of future interest-rate hikes.

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After last year’s powerful rally, U.S. stocks have been under pressure this year, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 suffering 16% losses as the prospect of higher rates spooks investors away from frothier growth shares. On Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell outlined his most aggressive approach to taming inflation to date, potentially endorsing two or more half percentage-point interest-rate increases.

Up until last week, U.S. equities had attracted about $100 billion of inflows in 2022, as investors pulled money from bonds and credit funds, favoring American shares as an inflation hedge. Meanwhile, European equity funds have suffered 10 straight weeks of outflows over fears of a global economic slowdown and heavy exposure to Russia and Ukraine.

Still, the extremely bearish sentiment, peaking inflation, as well as waning war fears, make the set-up for a bear-market rally in stocks “not bad,” according to Hartnett, with BofA’s custom Bull & Bear Indicator flashing a buy signal for equities. But, according to BofA, the central banks’ tightening poses a risk of the S&P 500 hitting a floor of 4,200 points–a drop of 4.4% from current levels, while the strategists see the ceiling at 4,800 points, a 9.2% upside.

Hartnett isn’t alone in warning investors about the negative impact from rising rates. Morgan Stanley strategists led by Graham Secker said in a note that while the rapid jump in U.S. real yields in recent weeks has had limited effect on global stocks, this may change soon.

“High real yields may yet bite on stocks,” said Secker. “From here on there’s little slack left in equity valuations to offset any further rise in real yields.”