Blue Jays’ Matt Chapman Reaching New Heights In Advance Of His Free Agency

As Matt Chapman cut his teeth as a young regular for the Oakland Athletics, I envisioned him as one of the premier emerging stars in the game, with MVP upside. The clear pluses in his game were right in your face – he crushed the baseball, and he moved like a cat at the hot corner, with exceptional first step quickness, sure hands and a strong throwing arm. All he had to do was make the typical subtle improvements around the edges that most young stars do in their formative years.

The only negative that could be held against Chapman early on was that he didn’t make his MLB debut until the age of 24. Most young studs, even if they were college draftees like the A’s 2014 1st rounder, get to the bigs at a younger age. So one could be forgiven if they thought that Chapman might lack substantial upside above the level of performance he showed immediately after his promotion.

But that early standard was plenty good enough. In 2018, Chapman’s first full season, he posted a 137 wRC+ and showed signs of additional upside. His K/BB profile (23.7% K, 9.4% BB rate) was in the league average range. He crushed all batted ball types – his 92.9 mph fly ball, 99.3 mph liner and 93.0 mph grounder average exit speeds were all materially above league average. The flies were hit over a half standard deviation, the liners over a full standard deviation and the grounders over two standard deviations harder than league average. Such a profile would suggest that there was more power in the tank. Plus, the defense was special – he won his first Gold Glove that season.

And in 2019, Chapman did get better in some ways. The K/BB profile got tightened up a little bit (22.1 K, 11.1% BB rate). He shifted his batted ball authority prowess to the appropriate batted ball types, with his fly balls now over a standard deviation and liners now over two standard deviations harder than average. Overall, his numbers took a bit of a hit as his liner rate descended into the 3rd percentile among all MLB regulars. That was a one-year glitch – his ceiling appeared as high as ever. Plus, he won another Gold Glove.

Then, the next step just didn’t happen. In the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic-shortened season, he crushed the baseball harder than ever – when he hit it. Chapman was grounded by an implosion in his K/BB profile – his 35.5% K rate and 5.3% BB rate were and still are career worsts. On top of this, he became an extreme grounder puller for the first time in his career, inviting overshifts and adding even more batting average risk.

In 2021, the BB rate regressed upward, but the K surge proved to be real as it improved only modestly to 32.9%. Chapman was now a low-average, 200+ K dead-pull occasional slugger who didn’t impact the baseball as severely as he once did. During 2022 spring training, the A’s moved him to Toronto for a much more ordinary prospect package than they would have been able to obtain a year earlier. The contending Jays were getting two years of Chapman’s services before his impending free agency after the 2023 season.

On the surface, his first year in Toronto didn’t appear to be that much of an improvement – a .229-.324-.433 line and solid defense – but there were some very positive trends taking root.

First, there was substantial improvement in his K rate. A 27.4% K rate was still over a half standard deviation higher than league average, but was materially down from its rarified levels of 2020-21.

Secondly, he finally got back to impacting all batted ball types. While his 94.9 mph fly ball, 97.8 mph liner and 89.9 mph grounder exit speeds all fell short of career highs, they were all over a standard deviation higher than league average. He hadn’t accomplished that since 2019.

He’s built on all of those strengths thus far in 2023, and appears to be in the process of reaching a new career peak. He’s cut his pop up rate – a career-long issue – to 3.8%. 5.5% is his previous seasonal low, and that was in his first full season in 2018. His 12.3% pop up rate in 2020 is the highest I’ve ever seen. The K rate has continued its downward trend, to 25.9% thus far in 2023. He’s also spraying the ball to all fields on the ground for the first time in years. Chapman is giving away free outs at a much lower pace than ever before.

Then there’s the contact authority. There isn’t much difference between the way Aaron Judge impacted the baseball in his 2022 MVP season and the way Chapman is doing so this season. Overall, Judge 2022 has a 95.8 to 95.2 mph edge. On fly balls, Judge 2022 has a 99.2 to 97.8 mph edge, while Chapman 2023 is ahead on liners (102.1 to 100.2 mph) and grounders (91.6 to 89.9 mph).

Oddly enough, Chapman’s 2023 mainstream numbers really don’t fully reflect how well he has performed. He is somehow batting only .278 AVG-.778 SLG in the air despite his thunderous fly ball impact. On the other hand, he is way overperforming on liners (.870 AVG-1.348 SLG) and grounders (.471 AVG-.588 SLG). Putting it all together, however, Chapman’s raw numbers understate his excellence. He “should be” batting .293-.373-.602 to date for a 182 “Tru” Production+, well better than his current 160 wRC+.

Yes, his .315 batting average through Monday’s games is a bit of a mirage thanks largely to his grounders finding more than their share of holes, but his .537 SLG doesn’t come close to reflecting the hell he’s unleashing on pitchers.

Chapman has emerged as a worthy rival to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the most dangerous weapon in the deep Blue Jay lineup. This enhances the Jays’ chances in the strong AL East, and of making a deep playoff run. It also might make him the most attractive target in this winter’s free agent market, and ultimately one of baseball’s wealthiest players.