Bitwise Files ETFs to Bet on 2028 U.S. Election

Key Insights:

• Bitwise and GraniteShares filed election-based ETFs.
• Funds invest in binary political event contracts.
• Structures pay out $1 or expire worthless.

Bitwise and GraniteShares filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission this week to launch exchange-traded funds tied to U.S. election outcomes. The filings targeted presidential, Senate, and House races scheduled for 2026 and 2028. The firms structured the products around regulated political event contracts, extending prediction markets into traditional ETF wrappers.

The move placed political prediction markets inside mainstream brokerage accounts. Election ETFs convert binary contracts into tradable shares that fluctuate with implied probabilities. The filings arrived as issuers continued expanding thematic funds beyond commodities and cryptocurrencies.

Market Reaction To Election ETFs Filing

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart commented that the “ETF-ization of everything” continued with these filings. His remarks reflected a broader pattern of issuers packaging niche exposures into exchange-listed products. That reaction followed similar proposals earlier this year targeting political derivatives.

NYSE Arca listings for the Bitwise products showed six funds under the PredictionShares brand. Two funds focused on the U.S. presidential race are set for Nov. 7, 2028. Four others tracked control of the Senate and House in upcoming cycles. GraniteShares mirrored the structure in its separate registration.

The filings described funds that lose all value substantially if the referenced political outcome fails. Each product committed at least 80% of its assets to binary event contracts traded on Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated exchanges. Those contracts settle at $1 if the outcome occurs and $0 otherwise. Share prices, therefore, moved between those bounds as sentiment shifted.

Structure Mirrors Regulated Prediction Markets

The prospectus language explained that daily pricing reflected market-implied probabilities. As polling data and news developments shifted expectations, contract prices adjusted in real time. That mechanism translated political sentiment into a liquid instrument accessible through brokerage accounts.

Roundhill had filed a similar set of election-based ETFs on Feb. 14. That earlier proposal also offered six funds tied to presidential, Senate, and House results. Seyffart noted that such filings were unlikely to stop, signaling the issuer’s appetite for event-driven structures.

These Election ETFs differ from traditional equity or bond funds because they concentrate exposure on a single binary outcome. Investors select a fund aligned with a party’s victory, rather than holding diversified assets. If the predicted result occurs, the payout structure caps returns at par value. If not, investors face near total loss.

Product Logic Extends Financialization Trend

Bitwise framed the funds’ objective as capital appreciation upon a specific party’s victory. GraniteShares adopted identical mechanics in its registration. Both issuers relied on derivatives cleared through regulated venues to avoid direct political wagering classifications.

This structure effectively wraps prediction-market contracts into an exchange-traded vehicle. Investors can buy or sell shares intraday without opening accounts on specialized event platforms. That convenience expands participation but concentrates risk in a single outcome.

The strategy also reflects a broader push by asset managers to tokenize and package probability-based markets. Crypto platforms previously popularized election contracts, but ETF issuers now attempt to bridge that model into traditional finance. This shift occurred because event contracts gained regulatory clarity under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight.

The filings did not guarantee approval. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission still reviews the proposals and may request amendments. Regulatory scrutiny remains high for novel derivative-based ETFs, especially those tied to political outcomes.

For now, attention shifts to the agency’s response timeline and any public comment period. If regulators approve the Election ETFs, trading could begin ahead of the 2026 midterm cycle. That decision would test investor appetite for binary political exposure inside regulated funds.