Topline
Former President Donald Trump would beat President Joe Biden in five of six key battleground states—wins that would likely secure an Electoral College victory—according to a new poll taken a year before the election, which shows voters are dissatisfied with the direction the country is moving and blame Biden for their personal hardships.
US President Joe Biden gives a thumbs up as he leaves St. Edmond Roman Catholic Church in Rehoboth … [+]
Key Facts
Biden trails Trump by 10 points in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona, four in Pennsylvania and five in Michigan, according to the New York Times/Siena poll of 3,662 registered voters taken between October 22 and November 3 (margin of error 1.8), which shows Biden would beat Trump in only one battleground state, Wisconsin, by two points.
If the election were held today, Trump would net more than 300 Electoral College votes, surpassing the 270 needed to win, according to a Times analysis of the results.
But the poll found that another generic Democrat running against Trump would win five of the six battleground states by seven to 12 points, and Nevada by three.
While both candidates have similarly low favorability ratings (42% for Trump, 41% for Biden), voters have more faith in Trump when it comes to a number of key issues: 59% trust Trump to handle the economy over Biden, and Trump has a sizable lead over Biden on how voters feel he would handle immigration (by 12 points), national security (12 points) and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (11 points).
Concerns about Biden’s age (80) have grown significantly since 2020, when 34% of battleground state voters said he was too old to be president—71% now say he’s too old, while 62% say he does not have the mental sharpness to be president, up from 45% in 2020.
Biden is also losing support among demographics that typically back Democrats: voters under 30 favor him by just one point, and they trust Trump more to handle the economy by a 28-point margin, while Biden’s advantage among nonwhite voters under 45 has declined from a 39-point lead over Trump in 2020 to six points now.
Big Number
46. That’s the percentage of voters who said Biden has the proper temperament to be president, compared to 43% for Trump—indicating the former president’s incendiary rhetoric has not dented his electability.
Key Background
Trump has been leading the GOP primary field by double-digit margins for months and is the party’s presumed nominee. Both he and Biden seem headed for a re-match on wounded footing. Voters’ concerns about Biden’s age persist and social issues that often drive Democrats’ campaign messaging strategies, such as abortion and guns, are less of a priority for Americans than the economy, according to the poll. Survey results consistently demonstrate that concerns about the economy, and voters’ faith in Trump to handle them, outweigh negative feelings about Trump’s legal woes, including four criminal cases and a civil fraud trial. Both candidates could also lose votes to independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who 22% of voters polled by Quinnipiac University last week said they would support in a hypothetical three-way matchup with Trump (36%) and Biden (39%).
Further Reading
Biden Slips On Air Force One Stairs After Staff Try To Prevent Major Falls—As Gaffes Raise Concerns About His Age (Forbes)
Trump’s Week Of Gaffes: Biden And DeSantis Highlight Trump’s Mistakes (Forbes)
RFK Jr. Launches Independent Presidential Bid—Challenging Biden And Trump (Forbes)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2023/11/05/biden-trails-trump-in-5-battleground-states-but-odds-are-much-better-for-another-democrat-poll-says/