Better than forecast CPI boost BoE easing hopes and lift Gilts – Scotiabank

UK markets breathed a sigh of relief after this morning’s UK inflation data, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

GBP is trading steady on the day

“December CPI rose 0.3% in the month and 2.5% over the year, a little below forecasts. Core and Services price measures slowed more significantly, boosting expectations that the BoE will proceed with rate cuts.”

“The data brings some relief to the Gilts market after the recent turmoil. 10Y yields have eased 8bps on the day. Swaps reflect 22bps of easing priced in for the February MPC versus 16bps late yesterday. The data is a double-edged sword for the pound which has been choppy but is trading little changed on the day.”

“The Pound Sterling (GBP) is not making a lot of progress but the heavy losses seen in the market last week have been halted. Monday and Tuesday’s sessions suggested firm demand on dips below 1.22 and a similar pattern is evident so far today. This may set the pound up for a minor squeeze higher. Resistance is 1.2255. Support is 1.2175.”