It’s week two in the NFL, and the time for overreaction is over…or is it? There are still plenty of questions that need to be answered. For instance, is Daniel Jones the best fantasy quarterback, or are the Miami Dolphins the worst? Is Travis Etienne the best fantasy running back, or are the Carolina Panthers the worst?
While both can be true, it is our plight in fantasy football to find the best and worst matchups each week, and you know what it changes. In season-long fantasy leagues, it is sometimes hard to pivot, but there are always options. That’s why you draft.
So, let’s get to the best/worst fantasy football matchups by position.
Quarterback Best/Worst Fantasy Matchups
Best Matchup: Justin Fields v the Buffalo Bills; Buffalo -6.5 @ Jets, 45.5 o/u
The line has remained the same, but the over/under has increased to 47.5 (depending on the site used). Which basically means the sharks expect the Bills to win, but now they are expecting the Jets to put up a fight. And if the fight in the Jets is anything like last week, that means Fields is in for a field day (what! you saw that coming).
In Week 1, Fields:
- Led all quarterbacks in expected points per dropback per Next Gen Stats
- Completed 73% of his passes
- Threw for 218 yards and a touchdown, and ran for 48 yards and two touchdowns
- 8.6 average air yard completion was second best for the week.
Coincidentally, in Week 1, the Bills’ defense allowed:
- Allowed 238 rushing yards, the most in Week 1
- Gave up 8.2 yards per rush attempt
- Allowed one quarterback rushing touchdown
- Lamar Jackson finished with 29.4 fantasy points, the sixth most for the week.
I get it, the Ravens’ offense is not the Jets’ offense, and Fields is not Jackson. But the inability of the Bills to slow down the run game bodes well for a team that was second in rush attempts last week (39) and is built on the run game.
Fields will be the “IT” choice in DFS this week, but unless you have Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, there isn’t a better matchup option.
Worst Matchup: Jones v Denver Broncos; Denver -2.5 @ Colts, 43.5
Jones was great last week. He finished with 29.5 fantasy points and a 75.9 completion percentage. He also averaged 9.4 yards per attempt on 29 pass attempts.
He also played the Miami Dolphins defense. This week, he will go up against Pro Football Focus’s 10th-ranked defensive line (the Dolphins’ defensive line is ranked 32nd).
As a comparison:
Dolphins’ defense allowed 418 total yards, the third most last week.
While the Broncos’ defense allowed 133 total yards, the least amount.
The Dolphins’ defense allowed 262 passing yards, the seventh most for the week.
The Broncos’ defense allowed 62 passing yards, the fewest for the week.
And there is some validity to the fact that the Broncos played against a rookie quarterback, Cam Ward, and a group of receivers (yes, looking at you, Calvin Ridley) who simply could not hold onto the ball.
But the Broncos’ defense brings in the clout of legitimacy from last year. This is the defense that led the league in sacks (63) and pressures. They continued their dominance in week one with six sacks and only allowing seven first downs in the game.
I get it, Jones is a savvy veteran who has better weapons surrounding him. So play tight end Tyler Warren and even slip in running back Jonathan Taylor. Just don’t expect the same fireworks from Jones this week.
Running Back Best/Worst Matchups
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – SEPTEMBER 24: Zach Charbonnet #26 of the Seattle Seahawks stiff arms Deion Jones #40 of the Carolina Panthers during the fourth quarter of a game at Lumen Field on September 24, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Christopher Mast/Getty Images)
Getty Images
Best Matchup: Zach Charbonnet v Pittsburgh Steelers; Seahawks @ Steelers -2.5, 40.5
Whether you play in a standard or a PPR fantasy league, last week the Steelers were the fantasy gift that kept giving, allowing Jets’ running back Breece Hall to finish in the top-10 for fantasy points. If you played standard, he finished seventh with 14.5 fantasy points; if PPR is your league, he finished 10th with 16.5 fantasy points. Either way, it wasn’t a good look for the Steelers’ defense.
Enter Charbonnet. Last week, Charbonnet was responsible for 54.5% of the Seahawks’ running back carries. He was on the field for 58% of the defensive plays, and he finished with 12 carries and a rushing touchdown.
Now, here is the caveat: the teams may be feeling things out like we are. Like, what other explanation is there for Jacory Croskey-Merritt to see only four touches and Austin Ekeler to double that amount in week two after what we witnessed in week one?
So the reason for that brief but pointed tirade was that it is still week two, and even though Charbonnet was the more productive back in week one, one never knows how it’s going to play out in only two weeks.
Worst Matchup: Nick Chubb v Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Buccaneers @ Texans -1.5, 44.5
There was a time when the Buccaneers’ rush defense was feared, and then it wasn’t. Last season, they were the third-best rushing defense, allowing an average of 96.9 rushing yards a game. However, their home versus away splits weren’t close. When playing at home, they allowed opposing teams to rush for an average of 111.1 yards per game. When playing away, opposing teams only rushed for an average of 79.3 yards per game.
This is only week two, but last week they played in Atlanta. They held Bijan Robinson to 24 yards on 12 rushing attempts. Robinson’s longest run was for six yards.
Now the Buccaneers travel to Houston to play the Texans. A surgically enhanced Chubb is currently RB1 in Houston. Last week, he averaged 4.6 yards per carry. He had a long run of 13 yards and finished the day with a respectable 60 yards on 13 carries.
This isn’t the expected outcome this week. It also doesn’t help that the Texans’ offensive line isn’t good (and that’s being nice).
Tight Ends Best/Worst Matchups
Best Matchup: Hunter Henry @ Miami Dolphins, Patriots @ Dolphins -1.5, 44.5
Henry and Drake Maye just feels right. Last week, Henry was targeted eight times, collected four receptions for 66 yards. He was on the field for 93% of the offensive snaps and had a 17.8% target share. Of his eight targets, five were first read.
Now the Patriots will play what appears to be a hapless Dolphins crew. Last week, they allowed the fourth most fantasy points to the tight end position per footballdatabase.com.
The floor with Henry is safe, which is what you want if your tight end isn’t named Trey McBride or Brock Bowers.
Worst Matchup: Dalton Kincaid @ New York Jets, Bills -6.5, 45.5
It’s not just that Kincaid is the fifth receiving option in this offense; it isn’t only because he ran routes on only 56% of the pass plays last week. Kincaid has found himself on the field for only 48.1% of the offensive snaps and saw only an 8.7% target share last week.
His 48 yards looked good last week because he paired it with a touchdown.
Now he will go up against a Jets defense that gave up the eighth fewest fantasy points per game to the tight end position last year. And although Jonnu Smith found the end zone last week, the Jets held the two Steelers’ tight ends to a combined 43 yards.
Touchdown dependency isn’t where you want to be.
Wide Receivers Best/Worst Matchups
Best Matchup: Emeka Eguka @ Houston Texans, Texans -1.5, 44.5
This is a tricky one because the Texans’ defense is legitimately good. Derek Stingley can very well shut down Mike Evans. But this is about Eguka. Last week, Eguka was on the field for 93% of the offensive snaps, had a 20% target share, and most importantly had a 44.4 % slot snap rate.
That’s important because the Texans’ defense gave up the most yards to slot receivers in week one.
Worst Matchup: Michael Pittman v Denver Broncos, Broncos-2.5, 43.5
Two words for you, Patrick Surtain. The 2024 Defensive Player of the Year has not slowed down. Last week, he shadowed the Titans’ Calvin Ridley on 83% of his snaps. Ridley did not have a single catch.
Look for Surtain to apply the same formula to Pittman.