Best Twitter threads of the day – October 19th

Gas- and electricity prices are dropping FAST in Europe right now and they are likely going to drop further!

What is going on? 💲🪔A thread 1/n

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) October 19, 2022

Nat Gas prices have dropped from >300 EURs pr MWh to levels just north of 50 EURs and day ahead prices are even lower in many areas of Europe

2/n pic.twitter.com/YXwgUygmkH

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) October 19, 2022

Prices in Spain have dropped as low as 27 EURs pr MWh for Gas as there is currently a queue of ships waiting to off-load outside of Spanish LNG ports

3/n pic.twitter.com/2uP7QBNrYt

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) October 19, 2022

This has led LNG within day prices to trade sub 25 (below the PVB price) as LNG operators are trying to get more room for the LNG waiting off-shore

4/n pic.twitter.com/Kphm6qbHGL

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) October 19, 2022

MIBGAS (Iberian market) daily spot PVB trades at 27.75 EUR pr MWh, but the curve is still fiercely sloping upwards in to November and December.

5/n pic.twitter.com/k1WQbSOwRa

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) October 19, 2022

Interestingly, the curve has a positive beta to spot developments, so even if the price action is currently driven by a short-term over-supply, it brings the ENTIRE curve down with it, even if it seems irrational

The same holds for TTF benchmark gas in the Netherlands

6/n pic.twitter.com/X7VmTdpJS8

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) October 19, 2022

Fill levels in European gas storages are approaching 100% way ahead of the deadline 1st of November and paired with milder than usual weather, this leads to a very low net spot demand for Gas

7/n pic.twitter.com/p4ReP3RDOe

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) October 19, 2022

Germany is for example still running large daily net injections into storage through mid-October as

1) The flow is decent
2) The temperatures are mild
and
3) The nat gas consumption among households and the industry is DOWN relative to 2021

8/n pic.twitter.com/wuZAKSphfy

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) October 19, 2022

There is hence very limited scarcity risks for October/November and the arrow points clearly DOWN for prices as a consequence. LNG ships are queing up and there is nowhere to place it..

9/n pic.twitter.com/bat3rTwdhr

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) October 19, 2022

This is likely going to bring the entire nat gas- and electricity curve DOWN in coming weeks at the very least until the heating season really kicks in through November..

The armageddon scenario is for now NOT worth talking about.. BUT…!

10/n

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) October 19, 2022

The 2023 supply is much less certain! LNG makes up 40% of the current supply of gas in Europe, but we are still running 20-25% below usual flow levels due to the lack of Russian gas

The winter just ahead of us seems to be save, but in 23 we may be in for renewed turbulence

11/n pic.twitter.com/OCLenVeNq8

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) October 19, 2022

1/ We’re proud to launch the Aptos Names Service (ANS) on Mainnet: https://t.co/5eN3QDnJ0A@aptosnames allows all Aptos users to use a human-readable .apt name for their Aptos wallet address.

Here's what you need to know 👇

— Aptos Names (@aptosnames) October 19, 2022

2/ Your Aptos name is your identity in the Aptos ecosystem.

We want to give people a way to represent themselves in a unique and recognizable way when interacting with Aptos apps.

.apt users will have a friendlier, more accessible web3 experience as the Aptos universe grows. pic.twitter.com/satyAXFTi0

— Aptos Names (@aptosnames) October 19, 2022

3/ Users’ wallet addresses will be automatically set as the default target address for their Aptos names.

This makes sending and receiving funds easier while also reducing the likelihood of fraud and human error.

Plus, anyone who owns an Aptos name can also add a subdomain.

— Aptos Names (@aptosnames) October 19, 2022

4a/ Ready to claim your .apt name?

Starting today, the ANS registry will open at https://t.co/SXuDGfPP4R for 3+ character names.

Once claimed, you can use your .apt name in your wallet for transactions.

— Aptos Names (@aptosnames) October 19, 2022

5/ The ANS launch is just the beginning!

Backed by the world-class team @AptosLabs, developments are underway to make ANS the most robust and easy-to-use naming service in web3.

Learn more about ANS and how you can get your Aptos name today ⤵️https://t.co/jjs0Ijaen7

— Aptos Names (@aptosnames) October 19, 2022

.@harmonyprotocol endured another challenging quarter following DeFi Kingdoms' departure and the Horizon Bridge hack.

The macro backdrop combined with Q2's events proved to be problematic for Harmony, causing a decline in the majority of its metrics.

🧵 on Harmony pic.twitter.com/gVnQPgKejY

— Sean (@SeanButta) October 19, 2022

1/ Network usage, defined by daily active addresses and transactions, fell by 74% and 70%, respectively. pic.twitter.com/fLwIA9CmoM

— Sean (@SeanButta) October 19, 2022

2/ The decline in daily average users (-34,000) QoQ, coincided with the overall decline in GameFi and DeFi users.

.@DefiKingdoms launch on an @avalancheavax subnet in April created downward pressure on Harmony's active user base. pic.twitter.com/4RX3l0MdXn

— Sean (@SeanButta) October 19, 2022

3/ As a result of the events that unfolded in Q2, daily Txs fell by 70% to 28 million in Q3, their lowest in over a year.

.@harmonyprotocol increased gas to ward off arb. bots in July, briefly increasing transaction fees. Fees abruptly fell in tandem with Txs at the end of QE. pic.twitter.com/D8pfdsPhOC

— Sean (@SeanButta) October 19, 2022

4/ Daily revenue suffered due to a material decline in transactions and fees QoQ. Daily average revenue fell (-82%) to $240, compared to $1,350 in Q2. pic.twitter.com/uT1mmQKw5z

— Sean (@SeanButta) October 19, 2022

5/ Harmony's ecosystem continued to experience obstacles as the crypto market fell by about 4% QoQ.

TVL was down across its top protocols. GameFi and DeFi are still the predominant apps on Harmony.

Contracts called fell by 42% QoQ, consistent with the decline in network usage. pic.twitter.com/LDez9qGcCo

— Sean (@SeanButta) October 19, 2022

6/ Top 3 protocols represent 65%+ of TVL in Q3. This concentration exposes ecosystem risk, which has already been felt by DFK's departure.

DFK Serendale's impending retirement is a substantial blow to the ecosystem, causing further downward pressure on TVL in the near-term. pic.twitter.com/kzQD45ohB7

— Sean (@SeanButta) October 19, 2022