Best Sixers Value Bets For The 2022-23 NBA Season

With the 2022-23 NBA season rapidly approaching, oddsmakers are ramping up their season-long prop bets.

The Philadelphia 76ers are currently a +1700 to win the NBA championship on FanDuel Sportsbook, trailing only the Boston Celtics (+500), Milwaukee Bucks (+650), Brooklyn Nets (+700), Los Angeles Clippers (+700), Golden State Warriors (+700) and Phoenix Suns (+1000). Other sportsbooks such as DraftKings and BetMGM have them between +1400 and +1500, so FanDuel is providing slightly better value at the moment.

Most analysts do seem to favor the Celtics and Bucks over the Sixers heading into the season, while the drama-ridden Nets are the NBA’s biggest wild card. Still, the Sixers’ championship odds are roughly in line with the perception of their place in the Eastern Conference hierarchy.

If you’re looking to dip your toes into the betting waters this season and hope to place a wager or two on the Sixers, the following props appear to be the best values at the moment.

Over 50.5 Wins: -110

Heading into last season, it was unclear when—or if—Ben Simmons would play for the Sixers following an offseason trade request. Despite that, oddsmakers set the Sixers’ regular-season wins total at 50.5.

Simmons never suited up for the Sixers before they shipped him to the Nets ahead of the February trade deadline in the package for James Harden. Despite Simmons’ absence and the loss of Seth Curry and Andre Drummond in the Harden trade, the Sixers finished 51-31 in the regular season to squeak over the 50.5 mark.

Heading into this season, the Sixers have no such uncertainty. Harden re-signed with them on a two-year, $68.6 million deal this offseason, and they signed three of his former Houston Rockets teammates (P.J. Tucker, Danuel House Jr. and Montrezl Harrell) in free agency. They also acquired De’Anthony Melton in a draft-night trade to round out their rotation.

Despite all of that, the Sixers’ regular-season wins total has again been set at 50.5.

There’s no guarantee that the Sixers will hit the over again. A long-term injury for All-Star center Joel Embiid could upend them. If Harden’s hamstring injury flares up, that could send the Sixers into a tailspin given their lack of reliable point guard depth behind him.

However, the Sixers are far deeper than they were heading into last season, and third-year guard Tyrese Maxey could be headed for another leap. Another 50-win season is well within their reach as long as injuries don’t pile up.

Joel Embiid To Win Defensive Player Of The Year: +2500

Joel Embiid is tied with Giannis Antetokounmpo at +700 to win the Most Valuable Player award, trailing only Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (+450). They’re both ahead of two-time reigning MVP Nikola Jokic (+1000) and other stars such as Kevin Durant (+1000), Ja Morant (+1100), Stephen Curry (+1500) and Jayson Tatum (+1600).

But if Embiid didn’t win MVP last season while becoming the first center since Shaquille O’Neal to lead the league in scoring (30.6 points per game), it’s hard to see how he’ll have a better case this year.

With Harden in the fold for the full season, the Sixers shouldn’t need Embiid to shoulder such a heavy scoring load. Harden should help generate easy looks for Embiid, but the additional firepower that the Sixers added this offseason will take more off the big man’s plate. With advanced metrics likely to favor Jokic over Embiid largely because of his passing impact, it’s hard to see how he’d have a stronger case to win MVP than he did last year.

Defensive Player of the Year is another story, though.

The DPOY typically comes from a team with a top-five defense, which explains why Embiid didn’t garner a single vote for that award last year. (The Sixers were tied with the New York Knicks for the league’s 11th-best defense.) However, Embiid has been eyeing the DPOY award for the past few seasons, and he’s become increasingly vocal about his candidacy with each passing year.

“It’s funny, I saw the Defensive Player of the Year stuff and I was nowhere to be found, which is surprising,” Embiid told reporters in April. “The defense has really become underrated, I don’t know why, maybe it’s because my offensive game has taken another step but that’s really what I care about the most.”

The additions of Tucker, House and Melton should help the Sixers tighten up their defense this season. Melton was among the league leaders in deflections and steals per game last season—which should make him a terror alongside Matisse Thybulle in the Sixers’ second unit—while Tucker is one of the league’s toughest, most versatile defenders.

If Harden helps alleviate Embiid’s workload on offense, he might be able to devote more energy toward defense. And if the Sixers finish with one of the league’s best defensive ratings, the star big man should be right in the thick of the DPOY race.

De’Anthony Melton To Win Sixth Man Of The Year: +4000

While the Sixers’ starting five is loaded with offensive firepower, their bench is more of a question mark in that regard.

House averaged 5.9 points per game last season across his stints with the Houston Rockets, New York Knicks and Utah Jazz. Thybulle is almost a complete non-factor on offense. Harrell is a high-percentage finisher off pick-and-rolls, but he isn’t much of a threat to create shots on his own. The same goes for Georges Niang, who’s mostly a long-range catch-and-shoot option.

Melton is the one backup who can create shots both for himself and others, although he might not always be tasked with that. Head coach Doc Rivers figures to stagger Harden and Maxey to ensure one of them is on the floor at all times. That would put Melton into a secondary ball-handler role, which is far more optimal for his skill set.

Melton struggled as a long-range shooter during his first two seasons, but he knocked down 38.8 percent of his 4.7 three-point attempts per game over the past two. He also averaged 10.1 points, 3.9 rebounds and 2.6 assists in only 21.6 minutes off the bench for the Memphis Grizzlies over that span.

Since Melton is the Sixers’ best two-way option off the bench, he should see the most minutes of any non-starter. He isn’t likely to outscore high-volume gunners such as Golden State Warriors guard Jordan Poole or Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro, but he could have a similarly positive influence on the Sixers this year.

Sixth Man of the Year often goes to one of the league’s highest-scoring bench players, so Melton faces an uphill battle for this award. If voters take his defensive impact into account, though, he could be a legitimate dark horse to win it.

James Harden To Win MVP: +10000

Embiid (+700) is the far better bet than Harden (+10000) to win MVP oddswise heading into the season, but there’s a world wherein Harden could have narrative fall in his favor.

Whereas Embiid is likely to take a slight step back statistically this season, Harden could be in line for a bounce-back year if he’s fully recovered from the hamstring injury that plagued him since the 2020-21 campaign. He isn’t likely to average scoring totals in the mid-30s like his prime Houston Rockets days, but the 24.6 points per game that he averaged during his first season in Brooklyn should be well within reach.

Harden also figures to be among the league’s leaders in assists after putting up 10.5 per game during his 21 regular-season appearances with the Sixers last season. Both Maxey and Melton are better off as secondary ball-handlers, which leaves Harden as the lone primary playmaker on the current roster.

If Harden regains the burst that allows him to blow by defenders off the dribble, he’ll be a far more dangerous three-level scorer than he was last year. His efficiency plummeted last year—likely as a result of the hamstring injury—but he was in the mid-40s overall and mid-30s from three-point range prior to that. Positive regression to those percentages would help his MVP case, too.

The narrative factor could also help him construct a case. His decision to decline his $47.4 million player option and re-sign for roughly $14 million less this season is what enabled the Sixers to have enough space under the apron to sign both Tucker and House. He also left enough room under the apron for them to bring in Harrell, too. If those three wind up playing impactful roles for the Sixers this year, it’ll be easy to trace them back to Harden.

Media members might not want to reward Harden for forcing his way off two teams in two consecutive years. But if he looks closer to his former self this year, he could push his way into the MVP conversation.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.