Bernstein analyst sets Apple (AAPL) stock price ahead of Q4 earnings

After clinching a record high, analysts are predicting further upside for Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) stock, partly buoyed by the company’s upcoming earning results. 

To recap, AAPL’s share price climbed higher following encouraging iPhone 16 sales, particularly in China. This success could lay the foundation for further gains, especially given the initially lackluster market demand during the launch of the company’s latest smartphone series.

The stock closed the last trading session lower at $235.86, a drop of 0.26% for the day, but it is still hovering near the $237 all-time high. This weakness continues in pre-market trading on October 23, with AAPL down 0.4%. However, in 2024, the stock remains up over 27%.

Analyst sets Apple stock price 

Now, Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi, in an investor note on October 23, shared insights into Apple’s prospects ahead of its upcoming Q4 earnings release. 

Sacconaghi, who has maintained an “Outperform” rating on Apple share price and set a price target of $240, expressed optimism regarding the equity despite mixed signals from the tech giant’s latest product cycle.

The analyst noted that Apple’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings are traditionally less impactful than the company’s commentary and future guidance, especially as investors focus on the strength of the latest iPhone cycle. However, this year, there are positive signs for Q4.

“Historically, Apple’s FQ4 earnings are less significant than its commentary and guidance, as investors focus on the strength of the new iPhone cycle. That said, FYQ4 data points have been relatively healthy, and currency is providing an incremental tailwind. As a result, we are modestly raising our Q4 estimates, now slightly above consensus,” he said. 

Less bullish outlook for Apple stock 

While Sacconaghi expressed confidence in the current quarter, the outlook for 2025 is less bullish. Mixed data points surrounding the iPhone 16 and delays in the rollout of Apple’s AI initiatives, specifically Apple Intelligence, have led Bernstein to lower their full-year 2025 forecasts. 

“Given the slow rollout of Apple Intelligence, the iPhone 16 cycle may be more backloaded, with upgrades potentially deferred to next year,” he added. 

He projected revenue of $415.6 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $7.28, slightly below consensus estimates of $421 billion in revenue and $7.47 in EPS. 

Apple is forecasted to see 5.6% growth in iPhone revenue, reflecting a 5.5% increase in sales, with approximately 246 million units sold.

Following the rollout of the iPhone 16, market demand for the series was subdued initially, which impacted the stock. However, recent gains are partly attributed to a recovery in China, where the company anticipates further growth.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) analyst Erik Woodring mentioned that iPhone lead times are “encouraging,” with September’s shipment of 56 million units being about 10% higher than expected.

Overall, analysts have noted that the slowdown in phone demand was due to a lack of artificial intelligence features, which are expected to be rolled out later in October. 

What next for Apple stock price? 

Based on the current valuation, the technology giant is showing strong bullish momentum, considering it is trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages.

 At the same time, AAPL shares are experiencing moderate buying pressure, with its 14-day relative strength index (RSI) standing at 55.91.

Despite this bullish momentum, stock analyst CyclesFan, in an X post on October 20, observed growing uncertainty about the stock’s ability to maintain its upward movement ahead of the earnings report on October 31. 

While AAPL shows upward momentum, the failure to close near a new all-time high in recent sessions suggests a lack of follow-through from buyers. The expert projected that Apple may not break out further and could see a lower close as it consolidates before earnings.

After clinching the latest record high, analysts have set the next key target at $300, but analysts are conflicted about whether this will be achieved in 2024 or 2025. Therefore, the upcoming earnings results and market demand for the company’s latest products will be crucial for AAPL’s trajectory.