US Dollar (USD) could edge higher, but momentum does not appear to be strong enough to break clearly above 156.20. In the longer run, for a sustained decline, USD must first close below 154.65.
USD/JPY might not be able to break clearly above 156.20
24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, we expected USD to ‘trade in a range between 154.80 and 155.80’. USD then traded within a range of 154.88/155.98, closing on a firm note at 155.92 (+0.37%). Upward momentum is increasing, but not significantly. Today, USD could edge higher, but momentum does not appear to be strong enough to break clearly above 156.20. On the downside, support levels are at 155.65 and 155.45.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (04 Dec, spot at 155.20), we highlighted that ‘for a sustained decline, USD must first close below 154.65’. While USD subsequently fell below 154.65, it did not close below this level. We continue to hold the same view. That said, after the rise to a high of 155.98 yesterday, downward momentum is starting to slow. However, only a breach of 156.20 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the risk of USD closing below 154.65 has faded.”