Bears have the upper hand below 200-hour SMA

• USD/MXN is seen oscillating in a narrow trading band on the first day of a new week.
• The technical setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for intraday losses.
• Attempted recovery towards the 200-hour SMA could get sold into and remain capped.

The USD/MXN pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Monday and oscillates in a narrow band, around the 17.0500 area through the Asian session. The technical setup, meanwhile, seems tilted in favour of bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside.

Friday’s breakdown below the 17.0800-17.0850 confluence, comprising the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and an ascending trend line extending from the August 10 swing low, validates the negative outlook for the USD/MXN pair. Moreover, oscillators on hourly charts have again started gaining negative traction and support prospects for some meaningful intraday downfall. That said, neutral technical indicators on the daily chart warrant some caution before placing aggressive bearish bets.

Hence, any subsequent slide is more likely to find some support near Friday’s low, around the 17.0165 region ahead of the 17.0000 psychological mark. A convincing break below the latter will reaffirm the bearish bias and drag the USD/MXN pair towards the 16.8200-16.7995 area en route to the next relevant support near the 16.7030-16.7025 region and the YTD trough, around the 16.6260-16.6255 zone touched in July.

On the flip side, the 200-hour SMA, currently pegged near the 17.0800 level, might now act as an immediate barrier ahead of the ascending trend-line support breakpoint, near the 17.1100 region. This is followed by the 17.1610-17.1615 supply zone and the 17.1900 barrier, above which a fresh bout of a short-covering could lift the USD/MXN towards the 17.2835 zone en route to the monthly peak, around the 17.4260 region. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for some meaningful appreciating move in the near term.

USD/MXN 1-hour chart

Technical levels to watch