Based On Schedule, Vikings Will Face Seahawks In Wild-Card Round

The Vikings started stacking wins and building their playoff resume in September. With two games to go in the regular season, it is all about establishing their playoff position and setting themselves up for a deep playoff run.

While critics may look at their plus-5 point differential and dismiss them from championship consideration, those same critics know that if the game is close at the start of the fourth quarter, the Vikings are to be taken seriously.

They go into Week 17 with a 12-3 record, and they are one game ahead of the San Francisco 49ers. If the Vikings lose one of their final two games against the Packers or Bears – both on the road – and the 49ers go 2-0 at Las Vegas and at home against the Cardinals, the Niners move into the No. 2 spot. Even though they would both be tied with 13-4 records under those scenarios, the Niners would have the tiebreaker based on a better conference record. San Francisco is 9-2 in NFC games going into Week 17, while the Vikings are 7-3.

On the other hand, the Vikings still have an outside shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but it would require victories over the Packers and Bears while the 14-2 Philadelphia Eagles lose at home to both the Saints and Giants. Based on the consistent sharpness and efficiency the Eagles have shown all season, that is not going to play out, even if MVP candidate Jalen Hurts misses one or both games.

If the Vikings can hold onto the No. 2 spot, and the current NFC standings don’t change, the Vikings will play the Washington Commanders (7-7-1) in the Wild-Card round of the playoffs. The Commanders have an excellent pass rush that could make life difficult for Kirk Cousins and a game-changing wide receiver in Terry McLaurin.

The Commanders would not be a walkover, but their uncertainty at quarterback with Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke is a big problem. The Vikings beat the Commanders in typical fashion in Week 9 with a 20-17 triumph. Washington closes the season with home games against the Browns and Cowboys.

The Seahawks (7-8), Packers (7-8), and Lions (7-8) all have a chance to supplant the Commanders in the No. 7 spot, but the Vikings will likely lose the No. 2 spot in the playoff structure if the Packers emerge as the final playoff qualifier. The Packers would need to beat the Vikings Sunday and the Lions in Week 18, and that loss would mean the Vikings and 49ers exchange the No. 2 and 3 positions.

The Seahawks currently have the edge on Detroit because of a head-to-head victory in Week 4. Seattle hosts the Jets and the Rams in the final two weeks of the season. However, if the Packers and Seahawks are tied for the final playoff spot, the edge goes to the Packers because they would have a superior conference record.

The Lions beat the Packers in Week 9, and their Week 18 game at Green Bay could result in the winner making the playoffs as the No. 7 seed, if the Commanders or Seahawks lose one of their final 2 games.

Predicted scenario

The Vikings will do what they have done throughout the year in the final two weeks and win a pair of games against the Packers and Bears. Minnesota defeated Green Bay in Week 1 by a 23-7 margin, the only victory by more than one score all season. The same thing happens Sunday on the Frozen Tundra.

Aaron Rodgers is not the same quarterback he was in previous years, and the Vikings will take charge in the second half.

Minnesota also beats the Bears on the road in the regular-season finale. If second-year quarterback Justin Fields plays – he is battered and sore at this point in the year – it will be a close game. If not, it’s difficult to see the Bears keeping the game close.

Look for the Seahawks to emerge as the No. 7 team. It’s difficult to see Washington closing the year with a victory over the Cowboys, given the Commanders issues at the quarterback position. The Seahawks have winnable home games against the Jets and Rams, and a 9-8 final record would give them a one-half game edge over Washington.

Since Seattle has the edge over the Lions (head-to-head victory), that gives the Seahawks the No. 7 spot.

On the other hand, if the Vikings slip one notch to the No. 3 spot, a meeting with the Giants (8-6-1) is very likely. The Giants earn a playoff spot with a win at home over the stumbling Colts. That win would ensure that the Giants have the edge on Washington (1-0-1 in head-to-head meetings) and none of the other contenders would be able to match New York’s record.

The Vikings beat the Giants 27-24 on Saturday thanks to Greg Joseph’s 61-yard, game-ending field goal, and another tight game between these two teams would be quite likely in the Wild-Card round.