Barrick Is Starting to Shine, but Not Yet Golden Opportunity

Barrick Gold (GOLD)  has rallied in the past four weeks and some recent weakness in the U.S. dollar is getting people thinking about a more sustained move up for GOLD and precious metals in general. Also some Real Money subscribers have asked about precious metals recently.

Let’s check out some charts and indicators.

In this daily bar chart of GOLD, below, we can see that prices have been bottoming since June. Declines to around $14 have been bought.

GOLD has rallied and the slope of the 50-day moving average line has turned positive. The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has turned higher from early September and tells me that buyers of GOLD are now being more aggressive than sellers. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator shows improvement from late July and is now finally above the zero-line in buy territory.

In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of GOLD, below, we can see that prices have been in a downward trend for around two years. Prices are below the declining 40-week moving average line. The weekly OBV line shows some improvement in the past two months and the MACD oscillator has crossed to the upside for a cover shorts buy signal.

In this long term close only or line chart of gold prices. below, goes back to 1973. If you start with a low in 1976 you can see cycle lows approximately every eight years. The next 8-year low is anticipated for around 2024, but could impact in 2023.

In this long term chart of GOLD, below, we can see how the 8-year cycle plays on this security.

Bottom line strategy: Shares of GOLD could rally to around the $21 area if the dollar continues to weaken, but we may see a better buying opportunity in early 2023. 2024 could usher in a multi-year advance.