Back To School Shopping Trends Hold Valuable Lessons For Retailers

Mother and daughter shopping school supplies in a store, child trying to decide which pencil to buy

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America parents headed into back-to-school shopping season knowing they would have to shop smarter, work harder, and seek help from all available AI agents to make their dollars stretch farther. Now, retailers are studying their spending for clues as to what’s in store for the holiday season.

As the back-to-school season enters its final weeks, retailers are seeing that consumers are extremely price-conscious, but also willing to spend and occasionally splurge.

The National Retail Federation, in its back-to-school forecast released in July, predicted that while overall spending for both K-12 and college is expected to increase, average per-family spending will decline.

Over $128 Billion In School, College Spending Expected

The NRF is predicting, based on consumer surveys, that families with K-12 students will spend $39.4 billion this year, up from $38.8 billion in 2024. Average per family spending will be $858.07, down from $874.68 last year.

Spending for college students is forecast to reach $88.8 billion, up from $86.6 billion last year. Families shopping for college are expected to spend an average of $1,325.85, down from $1,364.75 in 2024, according to the NRF.

Kantar, a global marketing data and insights company that surveys shoppers every month about their spending plans, has seen that parents this year are shopping earlier to beat rising costs and avoid out-of-stocks, and prioritizing value. A growing number also are open to buying school supplies at thrift stores and secondhand retailers as a way to stretch their dollars.

Parents Feel The Need To Shop Smarter

This back-to-school season, “the way that we’re seeing shoppers make choices across the board is really different,” said Julie Smith, Vice President, Shopper Insights at Kantar. “It’s not just about income. It’s about how far their income really goes,” she said.

“As we see the prices of everything, from rent to gasoline to food, all that goes up, it becomes more important to feel like you’re being smart with your money, and you’re making good investments in the things that you buy,” Smith said.

Parents are still saying they want to get their kids the trendy must-haves for school, “but they’re using some different tools,” such as shopping at discount and dollar stores, and looking for sales and sticking to a budget, Smith said.

Kantar’s research during the season also revealed how parents are choosing different retailers according to their particular smart shopping needs.

Using Amazon As A Price-Checking Tool

“When we looked at the shoppers planning to spend at Amazon versus Walmart versus Target we definitely saw some of those price hunting and deal hunting structures come through,” Erica Craig, Associate Research Manager for Kantar said. Parents were using Amazon “for comparing prices and finding that lowest price,” Craig said, and using Target and Walmart for stocking up and looking out private label brands versus national brands.

“In this current climate, we’re seeing shoppers using Amazon as kind of a validation tool to make sure their getting the best possible price,” Smith said. Shoppers are saying “before I pull the trigger on something at another retailer I’m going to quickly check it on Amazon and make sure I’m getting the best price,” she said.

Shoppers began shopping for back-to-school earlier than ever this year, a trend that most retail watchers expect will continue for the holiday season and for the foreseeable future as tariffs volatility has consumers expecting price increases if they delay purchases.

“We’ve seen a lot of demand pull forward,” Smith said. Some of that, she said, has been driven by retailers stocking up inventory early to get ahead of tariff changes, and then promoting it earlier to get shoppers in the stores.

Earlier Start To The Season

The National Retail Federation’s surveys found that 67% of parents began their back-to-school shopping in early July, up from 55% last year. The percentage of parents who began shopping in early July is the highest percentage the NRF has seen since they started tracking early shopping in 2018.

“One of the ways that we know consumers respond to economic stress and uncertainty is that they move up their shopping around key seasons,” Katherine Cullen, NRF’s Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights, said in a webinar in July to discuss the back-to-school forecast.

Half of the parents shopping earlier – 51% – said they were shopping earlier than last year due to concerns that prices will rise because of tariffs, the NRF reported.