AXSM Stock Surges After First-Ever Guidance Whops Analyst Expectations

Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) expects its eight products to generate up to $11.5 billion in peak U.S. sales, the company said in a filing that sent AXSM stock zooming higher Wednesday.

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This is the first time Axsome has provided guidance on its suite of products. The company projected a range of $5.8 billion to $11.5 billion in peak sales. That’s far above analysts’ forecasts for $2.4 billion to $4.5 billion, Mizuho Securities analyst Graig Suvannavejh said in a report. It’s important to note, though, that analysts don’t include estimates for all eight drugs in their forecasts.

“We’re pleased that Axsome has finally provided its view of potential peak sales for its products,” Suvannavejh said. “We believe the market may cheer the company’s bullish view of its products.”

In midday trading on the stock market today, AXSM stock jumped as much as 8% and traded at 79.49.

AXSM Stock: Auvelity Is Key

Among the biggest opportunities, Axsome expects Auvelity to bring in $1 billion to $3 billion in peak U.S. sales as a depression treatment. But the company is also studying the same drug in Alzheimer’s disease agitation and smoking cession. Axsome calls for $1.5 billion to $3 billion for the former pool of patients, and $500 million to $1 billion for the latter.

Axsome also confirmed plans to launch four new products by 2025, including treatments in testing for migraine, narcolepsy, fibromyalgia and Alzheimer’s disease agitation. The company expects to have initial data from a Phase 3 study in Alzheimer’s disease agitation in early 2024. But it also says the results of its final-phase study in narcolepsy will be delayed by one quarter.

In narcolepsy, Axsome expects a peak of $500 million to $1 billion. Bullishly for AXSM stock, that’s much better than Suvannavejh’s call for $100 million.

“Furthermore, in our view, with an anticipated launch in 2025, we believe that this confirms the company’s view that only one pivotal Phase 3 study will be needed to support a (new drug application) submission” in narcolepsy, he said.

Suvannavejh has a buy rating and 95 price target on AXSM stock.

Top 4% Stock

The news pushed AXSM stock well above its 50-day moving average, according to MarketSmith.com.

Shares have a strong IBD Digital Relative Strength Rating of 96, putting them in the top 4% of all stocks when it comes to 12-month performance.

Follow Allison Gatlin on Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.

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