AVAX Price Sets Sights on 27% Rally, but DeFi Alone May Not Be Enough

Avalanche’s token had a calm month with AVAX price hovering near $24.42 with little change. It was up over 2% in the last 24 hours.

Three-month gains sat near 12%. Year-to-date gains were only about 5.7%, far behind many peers.

Even so, the tone looks better now. DeFi activity on Avalanche has picked up. That can feed spot demand.

If the setup holds, Avalanche price could travel toward $31.07. That is roughly 27% above the recent base.

DeFi Strength Might Lift Avax Price

Avalanche’s DeFi activity has started to show signs of real growth, even as the token price has been stuck near $24 for weeks.

The network’s stablecoin supply rose by 14% in just seven days, and USDC alone jumped 31% over the past month.

Trading on decentralized exchanges is also busier; DEX volume on Avalanche has more than doubled in the last three months.

One of the biggest signals is stablecoin flows. In the past 24 hours, Avalanche recorded more stablecoin inflows than Solana, which is usually the chain that dominates this metric.

Daily transactions have also spiked, climbing almost five times higher over the last month. These numbers suggest that traders are not ignoring Avalanche.

Instead of buying AVAX outright, they are parking cash in stablecoins, using DeFi apps, and positioning for later moves.

In past cycles, such jumps in DeFi usage have often been early signs that demand for the native token may follow.

Why does this matter for AVAX price?

DeFi users pay fees in AVAX. They also hold AVAX to join pools and farms. When usage rises, net demand for AVAX tends to rise too.

This backdrop is one reason traders have started to talk about upside again.

AVAX Price Chart Setup Points to $31.07

AVAX price has carved an ascending triangle on the daily chart. That means rising lows are pushing into a flat ceiling.

Each dip has been bought a bit higher than the last one. This shows the patient bids under price.

Traders often pair triangles with Fibonacci targets. Measuring the prior swing gives a near target at $31.07. From $24.42, that is about 27% higher.

A push into that area would not be a shock if buyers keep control. What are the gates?

First, the ceiling of the triangle must break on a daily close. Think of this level as a lid that the AVAX price has bumped into for weeks.

A firm close above it would show that buyers finally cleared the offers.

A daily close back below the most recent higher low would hurt the setup. A deeper close under the triangle’s base or $22.15 would likely reset the view and delay any rally call.

Why the Move May Take Time

There is a catch. Derivatives are quiet. Open interest fell from $962.8 million on August 24 to $823.7 million on August 27.

That is a clear drop in leveraged positioning. When leverage goes down, breakouts can still happen, but they tend to grind. You get fewer “squeeze” candles.

This puts more load on the spot market. Spot demand is healthier when DeFi is busy, but it still takes time to push through a well-tested lid.

One more helper is the bull-bear power gauge. It recently turned positive. In plain words, buyers were winning more bars than sellers.

That lines up with the triangle picture. Yet it is a supporting signal, not a stand-alone trigger. If open interest keeps slipping, even a friendly bull-bear read may not produce a fast move.

Bringing it together:

• DeFi on Avalanche looks better than a month ago. That supports the AVAX price.
• The chart shows an ascending triangle with a Fibonacci marker at $31.07.
• Derivatives interest has cooled, so spot demand must do the heavy lifting.

If the Avalanche price breaks the ceiling on a daily close, a path toward $31.07 opens. If leverage returns, the move can be quick. If not, the climb can be slow and choppy.