‘Avatar,’ ‘Don’t Worry Darling’ And The September Box Office Preview

The good news is that 14 wide or semi-wide releases are opening in theaters over September. In a pre-streaming world where audiences still went to the movies just to go to the movies and where non-event films had a chance of theatrical success, several of these films would be likely hits or surefire smashes. So when we talk about the lack of big movies between Bullet Train and Black Adam, it’s mostly because anything that isn’t a franchise flick or a super surefire programmer is, at best, a commercial coin toss. So, of the 14 films opening this month, is there anything that might break out?

I expect Adamma Ebo’s Honk for Jesus, Save Your Soul (starring Sterling K. Brown, Regina Hall and Nicole Beharie) to be no more successful in 2022 than was Leap Of Faith ($23 million back in 1992 when people went to the movies), Holy Man ($12 million in 1998 despite a post-Nutty Professor Eddie Murphy) or Lucky Numbers ($10 million on a $63 million budget in 2000). It’s opening in theaters starting tonight and will be lucky to crack $5 million over opening weekend, which is partially why it’s also debuting on Peacock on Friday.

The first possible breakouts arrive on September 9. Warner Bros. Discovery was supposed to open Salem’s Lot on this key post-Labor Day horror-friendly weekend (It, The Nun, It Chapter Two and The Nun 2 next year). Alas, Covid-related post-production delays sent it elsewhere. 20th Century and New Regency’s Barbarian is, by default, the buzzy horror title of the moment. The original, star-lite high concept chiller about (no spoilers) an Airbnb gone to hell has earned pre-release buzz for A) being a pretty good horror flick and B) having several not-in-the-marketing twists and turns. Nonetheless, in this environment, $10 million on opening weekend would be great and $15 million would be a miracle.

More interesting, at least in terms of curiosity, will be Brahmāstra: Part One— Shiva, which is getting a semi-wide release courtesy of Walt Disney. Folks who discovered Bollywood and Tollywood action fantasies thanks to RRR earlier this year may choose to make this IMAX release their second bite at the apple. The first in a planned Hindu-language trilogy, selling itself as India’s first original cinematic universe (sigh), the film will hope to match the grosses of RRR ($13.8 million in 2022) and Baahubali 2: The Conclusion ($18.9 million in 2017). S.S. Rajamouli (who helmed RRR and the Baahubali duology) will be presenting the movie in Southern India. My pre-release impression is that it looks like what Marvel was trying to do with Eternals.

I don’t expect much box office from Moonage Daydream, the IMAX-friendly David Bowie documentary arriving on September 16. Ditto Ben Foster’s period piece actioner Medieval or the allegedly quite good Thandiwe Newton-starring rural home invasion thriller In God’s Country. A24’s Pearl is Ti West’s concurrently shot prequel to this year’s X. The Mia Goth-led origin story will hope to approximate the $11 million earned by X this past March. Nevertheless, I remain impressed that a star-free, 1970s set slasher amid a rural porn set pulled in $11 million.

I expect Tom George and Mark Chappell’s original 1950’s murder mystery comedy See How They Run to earn lots of buzz but little commercial interest. It looks great, but the cast is filled with spectacular actors (Sam Rockwell Saoirse Ronan, Adrien Brody, Ruth Wilson, Reece Shearsmith, Harris Dickinson and David Oyelowo) who are not butts-in-seats draws. There is something grimly ironic in See How They Run, whose existence owes some credit to the $300 million-plus theatrical success of Knives Out, getting a theatrical release, while Rian Johnson’s Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery ends up on Netflix.

Meanwhile, Sony’s The Woman King could be the first post-summer biggie by default. Directed by Gina Prince-Bythewood (Love and Basketball, Beyond the Lights, The Old Guard, etc.) and penned by Dana Stevens (Blink, Safe Haven, Fatherhood, etc.), Sony and TriStar are implicitly selling The Woman King as the real-life Black Panther. Viola Davis stars as a general in the Agojie, an all-female warrior unit that protected the African kingdom of Dahomey in the 19th century. Lashana Lynch and John Boyega co-star, which means audiences have an opportunity to prove that they care about onscreen inclusivity even when it’s not a geek-friendly franchise flick.

I’m not optimistic, but this year has been full of happy surprises like Were the Crawdads Sing and Everything, Everywhere All At Once. I’ll happily eat crow if paying consumers actually show up instead of waiting for Netflix. The next week, September 23, will give audiences another chance to put their money where their mouth is.

I don’t think the offscreen back-and-forth tabloid gossip concerning Don’t Worry Darling will negatively impact the film’s commercial reception. However, I don’t think it will help that much. I can only hold my breath and presume that the Olivia Wilde-directed, R-rated, fantastical erotic thriller will play at least as well as A Simple Favor ($97 million worldwide in 2018) or The Girl on the Train ($173 million in 2016). Warner Bros. has a long history of successfully selling less-than-conventional biggies (Magic Mike, Gravity, American Sniper, San Andreas, It, Crazy Rich Asians, Joker, Dune, Elvis) into mainstream hits. I choose optimism for the Florence Pugh/Harry Styles/Chris Pine flick.

Also opening on September 23 is James Cameron’s Avatar. Yes, the all-time global box office champion is returning to theaters in a bid to promote Avatar: The Way of Water. Will it pull grosses on par with Titanic 3-D ($58 million domestic in 2012) or The Lion King 3-D ($94 million in 2011)? Will it play closer to Monsters Inc. 3-D ($34 million in 2012) or Jurassic Park 3-D ($43 million in 2013)? Will it perform like most reissues over the last decade and count itself lucky to top $5 million?

My kids are excited about ‘finally’ seeing the film as intended (in IMAX or Dolby 3-D with HFR for good measure), so we’ll see. This could be the biggest pre-Black Adam movie of the post-summer season by default, and it only needs $153 million global to crack $3 billion. Not unlike Top Gun: Maverick flirting with re-topping the domestic box office on Labor Day weekend, a rerelease of Avatar dominating the charts in mid-September/early October would be another grim indictment of theaters being forced to survive with little-to-no ‘big’ movies from August to October.

In a sane world, Bros. (Billy Eichner and Luke Macfarlane) would A) have opened 20 years ago in the aftermath of The Birdcage and In and Out and B) would only be responsible for its own standalone success. Instead, it’s arriving decades ‘late’ (after Hollywood got caught up in post-9/11 global franchise tentpole fever) and is now essentially tasked with holding up the entire genre of live-action theatrical comedies. Granted, it’s a Universal flick that didn’t cost a fortune, so I’ll presume that any theatrical shortfall will be made for on PVOD. Still, it’s telling that a relative historical first is also tasked with holding up the very genre to which it was denied entry.

Last but not least is Smile, which has a strong trailer with a killer final scare beat (the upside-down head gag) that played in front of most (all?) theatrical showings of Top Gun: Maverick. Parker Finn’s original chiller (based on his own short film) seems like a conventional ‘rational adult stumbles upon irrational incidents in her everyday life’ chiller, which is fine if the movie plays as intended. Smile be a breakout akin to Don’t Breathe or Lights Out, or it could vanish like Wish Upon or Count Down. Paramount is obviously a bigger studio than, say, Broad Green or STX (although Countdown earned $48 million on a $7 million budget), so we’ll see.

And that’s September in a nutshell. Forgive me for omitting Studio Canal’s The Railway Children Return as I am not Will Don’t Worry Darling break out and rebutt the naysayers? Will my cynicism about The Woman King prove unfounded? Will Avatar rule one more time and prove that the brand still has a fandom? Will either Barbarian or Smile prove that horror movies still play sans franchise or marquee directors? What happens when Walt Disney puts their muscle behind an Indian action fantasy? We’ll find out over the next 30 days. Place your bets.

Honk for Jesus, Save Your Soul (Focus Features/September 2)

Barbarian (20th Century Studio/September 9)

Brahmāstra: Part One— Shiva (Walt Disney/September 9)

Medieval (Avenue Pictures/September 9)

God’s Country (IFC/September 16)

Moonage Daydream (NEON/September 16)

Pearl (A24/September 16)

See How They Run (20th Century Studios/September 16)

The Woman King (Sony/September 16)

Avatar (20th Century Studios/September 23)

Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros. Discovery/September 23)

The Railway Children Return (September 23)

BROS (Universal/September 30)

Smile (Paramount/September 30)