With the crypto market beginning to regain its strength, investors are now expecting the long-awaited altcoin season to finally begin.
Avalanche (AVAX) has entered the second half of 2025 with renewed bullish momentum, trading at $23.79 after gaining over 10% in the past week. The surge follows a string of institutional endorsements that could redefine its growth trajectory heading into 2026.
Institutional Adoption Accelerates
The biggest catalyst came on August 8, 2025, when BlackRock selected Avalanche as the second-largest chain by assets under management for its BUIDL fund, specializing in tokenized Treasuries and bonds. This followed VanEck’s $100 million RWA fund targeting AVAX projects and FIFA’s migration of NFT ticketing to an Avalanche subnet.
Institutional trust is not just a headline—it’s a liquidity driver. BlackRock’s participation alone injected $240 million in July, creating a strong demand base and reducing dependence on speculative trading.
ETF Approval Could Be a Game-Changer
According to Bloomberg analysts, there’s a 90% chance that an AVAX ETF will be approved by December 2025. Historical precedent suggests that an approval could replicate Bitcoin’s 65% post-ETF rally in 2021.
However, risks remain. Thailand’s ban on certain exchanges in June 2025 removed five liquidity pools, yet AVAX defied the odds with a 27% post-ban volume surge. Regulatory clarity on tokenized assets will be key to sustaining this momentum.
Potential ETF Impacts:
- Approval could accelerate institutional inflows.
- Delays might stall market sentiment.
- Regulatory clarity on RWAs could unlock broader participation.
Technical Picture – $27 is the Breakout Level
AVAX is currently facing a crucial resistance at $27, a price level that has already triggered two rejections in July. On the downside, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $25.14 serves as interim support, while $23.79 represents a key holding point.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 60, suggesting room for upside, but the MACD reading of -0.29 shows lingering short-term bearish pressure.
AVAX Price Prediction for 2026
- Bullish Scenario: If AVAX closes daily candles above $27 and secures ETF approval, a rally toward $29.81 and potentially $34 by mid-2026 is plausible. Continued RWA adoption could push it toward the $40–$45 range before the year ends.
- Bearish Scenario: A failure to break $27 combined with ETF delays could trigger a retest of $21.62 support, especially if broader market sentiment turns risk-off.
- Base Scenario: With steady institutional flows and moderate retail participation, AVAX could trade between $28–$36 in 2026, consolidating before any major breakout.
Final Outlook
Avalanche’s future hinges on translating its institutional traction into decisive technical moves. The $27 resistance remains the immediate litmus test, while regulatory developments and ETF news will shape its 2026 trajectory. If these factors align, AVAX could be one of the strongest large-cap performers of the year.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Reporter at Coindoo
Source: https://coindoo.com/avalanche-avax-price-prediction-for-2026/